"Yes, GME is approaching a peak in its business cycle. How is that a good thing if you're looking beyond the next couple years?...This company could be killed by downloadable content long before it pays out a single dividend ... never mind $50+ of dividends. My LONG sentiment says stay away."
--> First, "beyond the next couple of years" is a different scenario for "any" stock. I buy stocks after evaluating what I think the price should go to over the next 1-2 yrs. Yes you will probably "think about" the outlook beyond that but too many variables come into play to seriously make a valuation call beyond 1-2 yrs. Even the stocks you think will be around in 50yrs "could easily" be cut in half (or worse) in 3-5. All it takes is a newer/better mousetrap. Better technology can become a game changer in "any" industry. I expect to have a different looking portfolio 2 yrs from now but the stocks I buy today are in good shape for those 2yrs "IMO of course".
--> I've brought up the downloadable issue as well (many times actually). It's been discussed in numerous posts that were actually very informative. I have always asserted that it "is" an issue of concern but not until sometime into mid 2010 at the "earliest". The technology is rapidly approaching to download even the newest games in a a very reasonable time but other obstacles "do" still exist. The happy medium between the earliest/latest time for it to be a "potential" problem for gme is approx 2011-13 "IMO". Given those "earliest" and "happy medium" timeframes I'm fine with being an investor through 08'/09'. Barring any game changing news in the next 2 yrs I'll be downsizing the position throughout 09' such that I have approx 20% of my current positions by Jan 10'.
P.S. "IMO" NTDOY is a great buy at the $60'ish level and this is a great time to at least start averaging into a position. I just bought some more at $61.
"a "potential" problem for gme is approx 2011-13 "
You are saying that GME looks positive for a couple years, but then ???
Contrary to an earier post, it is this attitude that is shortsighted. The key to consistently making money in the market is to be smarter than the average investor. Assuming that the average investor is a shortsighted idiot is not the best way to do that.
"too many variables come into play to seriously make a valuation call beyond 1-2 yrs."
I'm not talking about making "valuation calls" or predicting the performance of a stock over a long timeline. I'm talking about staying in industries that have a long term future, and yes, this IS possible.
For example, the history of the development of civilization has required ever-increasing use of energy. What variables do you think will put that trend in doubt over the next 20 years? Personally, I believe fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy for the rest of my lifetime. For that reason, I have held shares in oil companies with large reserves (ex: SU). I also believe that nuclear will continue to play an ever-increasing role (ex:FPL). I have held both of those stocks (and others) for more than 15 years now. It was a good call then and I'm confident that they still good calls today.
Another example: base metals. Explain to me the exact dynamic that's going to make stainless steel irrelevant in my lifetime. Do you believe that we will find another element on the periodic table? I don't think so, therefore nickel producers are good investment candidates.
Another example: transportation of goods. Ships are the most efficient way to transport goods overseas as are railroads over land. Do you believe teleportation is a threat to companies in these industries?
The reason I periodically visit this board is through morbid interest. I held GME (and ELBO) shares for several years in the early '00s because I saw the way videogames were dominating my kids lives, but I had no idea how to predict what videogame software company had the brightest future. (Also, I stay away from software companies in general because I see virtually no barrier to competition there.)
Anyway I'll admit that I sold my shares too early, but I have no regrets. This is NOT a videogame company after all. It's a retailer of software (primarily). Imo, investing in GME today is like investing in a music retailer ten years ago ... or a buggy manufacturer at the onset of the automotive industry.