"The market that was up 3% on Thursday, that has gone up despite a ton of large earnings misses and warnings from large companies, despite oil hitting new highs, the Nasdaq that's up 8.7% in the last 14 trading sessions. Yes that kind of strength."
In my view this 'comparison to the broader market' is the weakest of the many very strong arguments you make. If you take a look at the last 20 trading sessions, for example, you'll find that GME has outperformed the market 10 times and underperformed 10 times. Look at a 3-month or a 6-month chart and GME tracks the broader market almost perfectly. In a one-year comparison GME blows the market out of the water. Unless you can tell us what makes the last 3 trading days so much more relevant than any other time frame we might examine, you are simply using a happy coincidence to provide some statistical verification for your otherwise strong arguments.
I covered my short May 55 calls yesterday at $0.80 due to lack of remaining upside vs downside. Still short May 60 calls. Went long stock first thing today. It's not as cheap as I'd like but that's a reasonable pullback/pause after the GTA runup. UK sales data this afternoon and any PR/earnings boost could give bump. In the $55-60 range I'd again look to be shorting based on valuation.
Btw, Blizzard now started selling their catalog via digital download. Wonder if they'll sell Lich King that way.
"where's this strong market you are talking about? you looking at the same market I am?"
The market that was up 3% on Thursday, that has gone up despite a ton of large earnings misses and warnings from large companies, despite oil hitting new highs, the Nasdaq that's up 8.7% in the last 14 trading sessions. Yes that kind of strength.
"The digital thing as been talked to death"
Oh no, there's years of discussion left. Yes, the pie is growing, but even you must acknowledge that existing gamers have finite time and money. If they spend that time and money on online purchases, that's a loss for brick and mortar. It's a growing trend, and is valid reason for a brick and mortar to not sustain a high multiple.
"your theory of peaking sales is just that a theory and has no basis in fact."
If that was my theory, which it isn't. I've stated peaking growth, not peaking sales. If you don't understand the difference, let me know.
"I have repeatly showed you where I thought you where wrong, misguided, being stupid. Just because the stock price is acting at the present time as if to confirm your view does not mean you are right."
It most certainly doesn't mean you are right, and yet you still feel the need for personal attacks. Out of fear, I suspect, or maybe posting anon on a board makes you feel all tough or something. Whatever. If you had a stronger argument ("beta"?) you wouldn't need to stoop to such a low level, IMO.
"In fact a poster earlier had a much better reason. the stock shot straight up 40% and it is now giving some back."
Err, I already gave that as a reason. Lack of catalysts, momentum traders leaving, remember?
"The stock can be selling off for a varity of reasons noone of them having anything to do with your research."
The stock can be going up for reasons that have nothing to do with anything you're posting. But somehow, you're right, even when the stock is going down. Funny how that works.
the stock is hitting fresh lows in a strong market
where's this strong market you are talking about? you looking at the same market I am? or are you trading brazil stocks or something?
the rest of your "facts" are assumptions which in your mind is a fact.
the only tidbit that was the least bit interesting was the $10 gift card at walmart.
The analysts where both right and wrong depending on which timeframe you where trading with. Listening to their call would have made you miss the final leg up as well as the leg down. any 5th grader that could look at a chart could have had better timing then them. Let me guess you missed the run?
the UK sales can and probably is due to several other factors. like greater console penatration of the Ps3 than the xbox360, the game selling on both systems, a better economy, a different culture etc etc. Yet your blinders will not allow you to see this because you would rather think you know it all and it doesn't fit your worldview of GME and it doesn't make your short position any money.
The digital thing as been talked to death and your "fact" of it "gaining steam" still does not equate to GME losing market share or sales. It is another assumption on your part. Your view is the pie is only so big and if one method gets more sales it must logically mean that another part of the pie gets less. You can not even fathom that the pie is growing so what sales are siphoned off from ditgial does not impact GME's numbers in the least at the moment and may not impact its rate of growth at all.
your theory of peaking sales is just that a theory and has no basis in fact. My theory is that this console cycle is not half way thru but maybe a qrt of the way thru and sales are just starting to ramp up from a bigger deeper installed base. there has NEVER been a console cycle where THREE CONSOLE where not only able to survive but to make record sales. You are basing your theory on the past not the present and not the future. Just because the game console cycle has been an avg of 5yrs in length peaking around the third year does not mean this one is. When the NPD numbers show a decline I might agree with you as long as sales are 57% higher yoy I say your full of shit and investing using the rearview mirror.
I have repeatly showed you where I thought you where wrong, misguided, being stupid. Just because the stock price is acting at the present time as if to confirm your view does not mean you are right. The stock can be selling off for a varity of reasons noone of them having anything to do with your research. In fact a poster earlier had a much better reason. the stock shot straight up 40% and it is now giving some back. So is the 40% gain the real stock action or the 10% retrace?
"They have all been given many times on this Board and have ALWAYS, ALWAYS been proven wrong."
You also said the analysts were wrong to downgrade the stock 6 months ago when it was at higher prices, and before a 25% haircut. That was wrong.
I talked about increasing marketshare from mass market retailers. Then GME said day one GTA4 sales were only neck and neck with Halo 3, while in the UK sales were tracking well over double Halo 3. Also Walmart started pushing pre-orders of Wii Fit in a promotion with Nintendo, and offering $10 gift cards.
I talked about the growing trend of digital distribution. That is a fact.
I talked about the lack of catalysts after GTA4 and what do you know, the stock is hitting fresh lows in a strong market with people asking "WTF IS GOING ON??!!!!!".
I talked about growth likely peaking in the first half of this year. We won't know that's a fact until later, and it'll be priced in before an earnings report next year confirms it.
Things have changed, of course, and this stock cannot always do as well as it has in the past. But I can't see that anything has basically gotten worse, other than the general economy, which has always had its ups and downs. There are many companies that have trippled, quadrupled, and even had 1000% gains over time, and this company is well-positioned to do much better in the future than it has in the past. None of the contrary arguments is new at all. They have all been given many times on this Board and have ALWAYS, ALWAYS been proven wrong. As I stated in a previous post, please check back with me in four months. I expect to have enough profit to take us all out for several days of heavy drinking.
I personally have posted the reasons why I like GME many times. I am just not motivated to do it today.
Their balance sheet is pristine.
They are growing at a fantastic rate. Well except liabilities, it is actually coming down. Also at first glance it looks like margins increased by about 5% in the last year. Not a sign that they are feeling competition and that their P/E is in jeopardy.
Great lineup of games being released for 2008.
GME still can't keep Wii's on the shelf they are being sold so fast.
Tax rebates perfect for buying gaming system and a few games.
I talk to store managers at 6 different GME locations on a regular basis. They ALL say life is good at GME.
GME is still 20% off their 52 week high. After being oversold big time.
Video Game industry expanding, and will continue to expand for many years to come as gamer age ranges are becoming wider and wider.
Like I said. I am not motivated, but I could go on awhile.