anyone think we could have a crash in the next week or so? This constant selling in the market is not good. Unless oil retreats (which I no longer see happening) I think that the market could crash 20% in a day IMO. desiel is $4.75/gal how long can truckers continue to deliver with those costs, with the savings rate and low wages how can consumers keep spending when the prices have to go up. Kimberly clark is raising prices 6-8%, airlines is raising their fares, unless we see a raise in wages the US consumer can not keep spending, either way increase wages/decrease consumer spending the compaines will have decreased margins. OIL went over the tipping point this week. And our politicians are still clueless. It will take a major wake up call for the politicians to see. I am extremly bearish on the market at the moment. add in the increase in borrowing standards and a large percentage of our population can no longer get credit at good terms. Bond yeilds are going up because of inflation so that isn't even a good safe place which leaves oil and gold, who's increase will make the problems worse. A negative feedback loop is starting to form. The market hasn't had a crash in 20 years. Not one person is talking about it. But it would appear we are getting close. We you can get a better return by stocking your pantry than in the market LONG term it is a bad sitution.
you won't be back to read this but I will respond to your attacks.
From your post and previous ones you are the one that thinks you know it all. It is not your fault. you can not grasp complex issues. Your linear thinking blinds you to the possibilities. I never once said I have superior abilities (those are your words not mine). While there are many people that surpass me in intelligence, education, motivation, and creativity, there are just as many that do not. From this discussion it would appear on the surface that you are the latter not the former.
Your belief that video games are useless diversions for youth IMO is wrong and pig headed.
I understand what it takes to drill in deep water, I also understand the incredible effort needed to sink the well and pump the oil. Since I minored in geology I also understand the effort required to find the oil in the first place. the knowledge needed to track down the oil deposits. The luck that is required after all the other things are known. I understand the costs required, the skill required, the long hard work needed by many individuals to acomplish all the above. But at the end of the day it does not require "outside the box thinking" It is a linear problem.
getting to the moon required "outside the box thinking", building the first skyscraper required "outside the box thinking", first hybrid, the first solar cells, the cure for smallpox, first nuclear bomb, invention of the steam engine, the discover of steel processing all required the individuals and groups that achienve them to think outside the box.
I wouldn't know what it is like to play games and spout BS on the internet all day. Between holding done my "real job" for 40-50 hours a week on the weekends, Researching, studying, and trading the market 12 hours a day during the week, taking courses in financial planning and being a single father raising a 12 year old by myself for the rest of the time; I have very few moments to "play games", let alone sleep. Once in a while i do enjoy a good game of Total War if I can find the time and energy at night after my son falls asleep. I know the benefits of games because I use to play them and my son still does.
"There is no outside the box thinking when it comes to drilling 2 miles under the sea. it is a straight line problem. Length of pipe, hours needed, type of material etc. "
I will refrain from calling you names, but you have no idea about which you speak. What's it like to play games and spout BS on the internet all day ... all the while believing that you have superior abilities to people who are more intelligent, educated, motivated and creative than you are?
Please don't bother responding to that question. I will not be back to read it.
If kids stop "playing" hide and seek at 8 do they forget how to hide and seek when in danger? No that skill remains with you for the rest of your life. Games since the founding of time has been used to teach, to train and to educate our youth. If you can not see how tertis let's you see "outside the box" then you don't understand the game. You have to think two three or more moves ahead if you want to get ahead.
You strike me as a linear thinking individual. In fact your entire post speaks of linear thinking. now there is nothing wrong with that as long as it is the majority of thinking. We have many linear thinking adults. sadly most of them are in government at the moment. Linear thinking is what got us into the mess we are in. Linear thinking is what causes the law of unintended consquenses. When you think in a linear fashion you get blindsided by problems you can not see.
There is no outside the box thinking when it comes to drilling 2 miles under the sea. it is a straight line problem. Length of pipe, hours needed, type of material etc. Outside the box thinking is for the Bakkuk shale formation where drillers have to devise horizontal drilling, fracture drilling etc.
the rest of your examples are all inside the box thinking. They are straightforward problems that can be easily dealt with when you have the necessary information to formulate the problem and figure out the solution. You examples all deal with a lack of education. that is a school problem. video games teach a whole different level of traits. traits that when placed with proper education open up entire new worlds to our young.
Out side the box thinking is like the Prius that uses energy from the braking system to recharge the batteries. No one else ever thought of that. That is outside the box. I would bet that person played some type of video game growing up. we will need outside the box thinking for energy, polution controls, government, etc if we hope to get thru these problems. Nasa in the 60's thought outside the box, some CEO's (the good ones) think outside the box. Pespsi's, ATVI, MVL's CEO's come to mind.
the CEO's of Ford, GM, MSFT are all liner thinkers IMO and their company performance shows that. There are a number of ways that GM and F could get out of their problems. Cutting jobs, and expenses are not one of them. GM and F needs to expand in their home territory. they need to produce cars that people want not those that produce the biggest profit margins. some times you must sacrifice profit margins to increase profits. sometimes you must think small to get large, sometimes you must spend money to make money. the only thing cutting jobs and expenses gets you in the long run is a smaller company.
Please tell me you're kidding. How does Tetris or any other game make you think "outside the box." They are incredibly contained "within the box".
Outside the box thinking is required for things like how to drill for oil under 2 miles of water and another 3 miles of rock including a 2000 foot thick layer of salt, or how to maximize the signal to noise ratio on a radio receiver, or how to extract heat from an ingot of metal without compromising its integrity, or how to handle internet traffic most efficiently, or how to provide adequate drainage for a building given its particular circumstances, or ... just about any other real world situation.
I fear for the world if it is left to young people who spend their time playing games or hang'n in the mall ... and don't even recognize that they are basically wasting their time. There's a reason why kids stop playing "hide and seek" when they're eight years old! Anyway, thanks I now know who I was talking to.
some would say the same about "hide and seek" yet this game trains a child in the art of capture and evade. granted those skills are not widely in need any more. It depends what games you are talking about. Some of the games made by the army teach alot of military issues like covering firing, working as a team etc. some games like Total war gives you history lessons, stratagtic thinking, city planning, military tatics of flanking, frontal attacks etc. games like the Sims let 's you plan and create whole societites, the hand eye skill needed for some games like Halo and the split second timing for others can help surgeons, athletes, police officers,etc. games like the Oregon Trail teaches history, math etc. Fantasy games like Neverwinter Nights teaches many little things, puzzle games like tertis makes you think "outside the box" The video games are the same as the games 20 30 years ago. Games like Monopoly that taught you about money, counting, math, capitalism. Or games like Risk which taught you geography, focal points and yes taught you about luck and it's vaule in victory and defeat. the games our children play are not just games they are another way to teach, to instruct vaules, and to learn.
As far as the reset button goes, where else in life is a retry that easy. By teaching that you need to retry a thing several times before you get it right is a skill that has been sadly undiscovered. Up until video games failure most likely resulted in the child not retrying it, not expanding on the failure to overcome. Now a child can retry and learn that maybe the second or third time something comes out right.
Video games now a days with the help of things like the xbox live teaches team work, social interactions, and the ability to trust people a world away. It also helps breaks down racial, geographical, and economic barriers between children.
No all in all video games are a plus for kids. when parents play alongside their child even more benefits of video games can be seen.
"video games allows people to learn critical thinking, quick reflexes, accepting failure etc."
The fact that you write this reinforces to me a disconnect from reality. Critical thinking? The solutions to problems in games are generally obvious and require only linear thinking. Quick reflexes? For thumbs maybe. Accepting failure? A large part of the success of videogames is that everyone gets to feel like a winner. Setbacks are minor and can be overcome virtually every time simply by trying again.
Videogames teach that results can be easily obtained without requiring any significant work or knowledge. I have yet to meet anyone whos life, career, social skills, intelligence, or abilities have benefited from playing them. They are a pastime, nothing more.
You are skipping a generation. The ones you are describing is those 30-25 and younger. the (25-30)-45 year olds are the fixers. everyone forgets the gen X they have since they were born. They were the generation where abortion become the in thing. The surviors. Read the book generations. It is a pretty good read on generations. GEn x is also the 13th generation of America.
while I agree it is hard to generalize like the market you can divine some mega trends in each generation. Selfishness was one of those trends in the boomer gen. risk taking is one of those for gen x
most traders are 25-45 yr olds.
as far as video games etc playing games from hide and seek, to bridge, scrabble has always been a way for human society to teach the needed skills for the world they live in. video games allows people to learn critical thinking, quick reflexes, accepting failure etc.
Physical activity or outside activity does not automaticlly mean it is better than the games being played today. society has different needs and skills in order to survive today then they did in 1950-1960
More mental skills less physical IMO.
Well, I think it's hard to generalize about generations of people. However, I think it's safe to say that every generation spends less and less time outdoors and becomes more and more disconnected from the environment and reality.
I have a hard time believing that the world will be saved by a generation that has its meals delivered, drinks $3 coffee from disposable cups, and spends its plentiful spare time playing videogames or buying crap at the mall. (That's not baby boomers that I just described btw.)
good points. As far as Ron Paul goes I remember watching him in the 80's saying the same things. for almost 30 years he has been preaching doom and gloom it is his power base. No better than a preacher on the street corner saying the end is coming. for those 30 years he has not done one thing that I know of to stop it. i'll admit that I don''t know everything he has or has not done. Is preaching on the gold standard is wrong IMO. As far as limited gov I agree with him, but withdrawing from the world and placing high walls is not going to make us any safer. In fact everytime it has been done we end up having to go fight a world war or we tear ourselves apart. No his views on economics and forgein policy are enough to turn me off of him.
I take issue with one of your points. that of the boomers raising their children wrong. I would agree but first the boomers would have actually had to raise their kids instead of pushing them into daycare, preschool, prek and then bribing them with things instead of doing the hard work of raising kids. So I think we agree but I don't think the boomers ever really raised kids and of course I know there were some that did, but most pursued their dreams instead of doing what is best for the child.
I agree on the planet supporting at these levels only 1 billion or so people but I tend to think that human technology will save the day. take email for example. All those letters no longer needed to be deliverd saves trees, gas, time, money etc. that is one of those big differences you were talking about.
It looks to me like we are on a 40 year cycle within an 80 year cycle. 1929, 1969 , 2009 all look like they have many many things in common. hell even the REPs are become crooks again. go figure. The dems are gearing up for big government return.
as far as human global warming I personally do not think it is happening. The fact that Mars and Jupiter has also shown global warming tells me its due to the sun not anything humans have or will do. However even with us both disagreeing we have found agreement in that there isn't a damn thing we can do about it wether it is or isn't happening. therefore IMO we must focus on growth to have the resources to fight the effects of glolbal warming or cooling (as I think we have entered into a new little ice age due to solar sunspot min being reached) without a strong balance sheet, good income, and wealth prodcuing assets we as a country will be powerless to deal with a crisis be whatever they may be.
As far as the younger generation. I'm talking about those from about 45 on down to around 25. Those will be the fixers. They had to take care of themselves growing up as their boomer parents left them to fend for themselves, they will be the risk takers as they understand that failure is just another oppurtunity to try again etc. those below 25 have been too protected to be much good to society. They have no idea what it means to have hard times. Hell most have never seen a recession. They were raised by the last of the boomer generation that took selfishness to a whole new level and will be the lost generation of our time like those in WW1 were.
You may be happy to know that I agree with you on almost all points... especially the one about global warming. I personally believe that our tripling of atmospheric CO2 in 100 years probably has and will change the global climate. However I totally agree that there is absolutely no way that we can change things by making better use of our recycled materials or whatever. Everything that has been proposed is a joke. We will burn every last drop of fossil fuels that we can find. Whether it takes us 20 years or 200 years to do so, it won't make one bit of difference.
The sad truth is that society as we now know it is probably doomed. The planet can probably only support a couple hundred million of us living at the standards that we currently enjoy. Using fewer plastic bags just isn't going to make the difference.
The one big point on which I disagree with you is your putting the blame entirely on baby boomers ... probably because I am one myself. The way I see it, my generation has done many things wrong as you say. However, one of the worst things that we've done is to raise our kids as even greater consumers and spoiled brats than we were ourselves. Not only do kids today think that they can have everything they want when they want it, they also seem to generally lack the common sense to see the error in their (our) ways.
It drives me nuts when I see some kid on TV showing me how we could use cow dung instead of wood for golf tees or something and telling me how every little thing adds up for our environment. No. Every little thing adds up to squat. It's the big things that add up.
Why should we fuss over a few plastic bags if we're happy to throw the energy equivalent of 10,000 of them into our gas tank every time we fill up? Why f#@K with golf tees instead of stopping the golf course from using herbicides ... or better yet, closing it entirely and using it for agriculture or forest or whatever? Let's stop kidding ourselves about the small things.
I also disagree about Ron Paul. To be honest, I don't know much about him but I believe that you are wrong in casting him aside as part of the problem. Although he has been in government for a long time, he has not had power and has largely been ignored. It's true that it's people from older generations who have dug this hole, but a few of them understand the scope of our problems and have the common sense to stop digging. I can't say the same about most from the younger generation(s).