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  • danielwilkins21 danielwilkins21 May 21, 2009 11:56 AM Flag

    Why GME will continue to go down

    As I expected, GME broke through the support and is tanking yet again off of news that should not have been terribly surprising.

    The longs will rightly object that comps are down b/c of tough comps, not the recession, not DLC, not Wal-mart's flakey used-game kiosks, etc. But the stock is distinct from the company, and the stocks performance is, quite often, based on superficial interpretations of the news and short-term performance/forecasts. That said, the expectations in the short-term were too high, and there are too many ultra-bulls out there that always expect GME to beat expectations. Obviously, the game is all about where to gauge those 'expectations'.

    The 2nd will obviously be much better than the first half. But where does the stock go until then? Create a calendar of major news events what impact they will have on this stock for the rest of the year. Bake in all the NPD reports that will suggest doom and gloom until these blockbuster software titles come out in 2nd half. Bake in an actual, and not merely rumored, PS3 cut. We all know it will happen, but when? And how much lift will this bring? It surely won't be a surprise when it comes.

    Lastly, how low will this stock go after the Q2 report? we know Q2 won't be any good, since it will also come with lousy comps, the lack of a stimulus check putting money in pockets, the lack of blockbuster titles, the continuing lousy economy, etc. So expect this puppy to stay flat or go lower. And then buy it back as we see a run up before Q3 earnings.

    Patience and discipline, friends. Not about being long or short, right or wrong, bashing people or companies. Now is the time to be patient. Let it come down...hopefully, there will be another GME crash, as we saw last year, under $20, and then slowly buy back in. But there will only be doom and gloom until NPD numbers in Sept and October.

    Good luck to all, longs and shorts. both can make money on this stock at the right time.

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