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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • nofckngmerlot nofckngmerlot Apr 29, 2005 12:09 PM Flag

    Historical perspective

    It may help to look at a former footwear darling for historical perspective. In 2001 between June and Oct SKX declined 75% from its high to a low of $10 over a period of 22 weeks. The last two weeks of Sept 01 saw a near 40% decline to a low of 11.33 but the final low for the move was another 12% decline to a low 4 weeks later at $10 which was approximately an 80% retrace of the prior climactic price rise. From that point it launched a rally from $10-24 lasting 27 weeks for a gain of 140%. The parallels in the case of DECK are the following. If DECK closed at the current price it will have sustained two horrendous back to back down weeks losing 40% in 2 weeks. Another 12% decline from this point puts DECK at $18. The 80% retracement of DECK'S meteoric rise from 8/1/03 - 12/31/04 is approx. $16. The eventual low may come between 16 - 18 sometime in mid to late May at which time the decline will have persisted for approx. 22 weeks. However if it follows the path of SKX a 75% loss from its high targets $12.50. I prefer the $16 - $18 scenario due to the action the past two weeks being so similar to SKX's final capitulation weeks. From the eventual bottom I would expect a rally of at least 100% retracing 50% of the decline. Target price range on the rally is therefore $25 - $36 depending from the level of the eventual bottom. Caveats: If the company has engaged in any fraudulent activity, cooked books etc. then $0 per share is its deserved future. It is always a concern when such relentless selling takes place that insiders know hidden secrets the retail investor is not privy to, ala Enron. It most certainly would be nice to see management make some open market purchases right here, right now. Assuming the books are clean AND there are no dark secrets to be revealed AND management can get their act together AND the current round of FED rate hikes are near an end DECK is becoming a very interesting value proposition for those with patience.

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    • craigt233,

      I agree, and I told the IR guy I talked to the same thing. We need a catalyst to force the shorts to make a move and also attract new buyers. Also to give longs a reason to hang tight. I believe we will hear something soon.

    • Ok, let's have a pissing contest. And let's remember who started this, ok? Did you go through ALL of my posts to see which ones you think you can pick apart? Gee, you must have quite a life, lol.

      No, I didn't buy at 26 as I told another poster who claimed this. If you would like to make a large wager on this, it can be arranged. I could easily prove my claim but you cannot prove what you say because it's a flat-out lie.

      The short numbers were "new" that day. They are ALWAYS behind a few weeks in case you didn't know that. No one knows from day to day what the short numbers are.

      The comments I posted about Stock Consultant analysis were accurate. That's what their charts indicated. If you have a problem with anything they say, write them- don't blame the messenger.

      Usually they're pretty accurate. Up to this point, their charts obviously have NOT been accurate for DECK, at least for the past week or two. If you notice, the past few times I posted the info I even made light of it.

      "Expert Hedge Fund Advice"? I think they're manipulating crooks and I've posted that. I do believe it's possible they are the cause of what's happening with DECK. Even the IR guy I talked to didn't think this theory was outlandish. And by the way, he confirmed we do have Hedge Funds in DECK.

      I posted a few articles about Hedge Funds but I'm certainly no expert. I think you're confusing me with someone else.

      I already explained my belief there will be a Buyback. I base this on a few different factors. I also think there will be an announcement soon. Is it possible I'm wrong?Sure, so what?

      I'm giving my opinion- that's different than saying something will happen for sure. Do you not understand the difference? I believe I even put a question mark on my original post on the subject. If I give an opinion, it's not the same thing as a statement of fact.

      Should I start putting a disclaimer on every post saying that what I say is only my opinion and should not be taken as investment advice? Geez, give me a break. This is a message board. Stop taking everything so serious.

    • Maybe it wasn't the CFO, looking back at a few posts you claimed a buyback was coming, "expect an announcement" you claimed "A little birdie told you and it only took one phone call" Then you post "New Short Numbers", which were from April 8th,.....hardly new considering it was a week after the crash and 11 million shares later.....then all this 100% Bullish...0% Bearish dribble, I think that was back around 26-27. The you pleaded for the company to do a buyback..."And Soon!"...then all the expert hedge fund advice and how they operate and what their strategy will be.
      Heyyyyyyyyyyy....aren't you the guy that bought more at $26????? Where did you get that from? Because I expressed some frustration because my holding just dropped 30% in a week?? I hardly believe that constitutes wimpyness....if it does there are a lot more wimps on this board than me.
      Anymore expert advice that I can base my future trading decisions on Oh Master??? I'm lost without this board.

    • The company really needs to put out a statement just like Calpine did. This daily beating is getting tiring. Also, a "Strong Buy" rating by one of the analysts wouldn't hurt either at these prices.

    • And what will you say if/when there is announcement? You won't say anything because you won't show your face here. Or you will use a new alias. That's what wimps like you do.

      Where is my post saying I talked to the CFO? Or were you full of shit? Put up or shut up.

      By the way, the poster who did say he talked to the CFO also indicated the company is considering a buyback program. Why don't you stop insulting other people and do something useful and call the company for yourself.

    • Go back and read all your posts for the last 10're a babbling idiot. Eventually you'll be right....even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
      I suspect you're a retired old timer who has nothing to do but profess his expertise on message boards all day. Here a pop there a pop everywhere you look you claim there'll be a pop. And there will be eventually, and you and kiss ass can pat yourselves on the back for being so smart and predicting it.
      "Expect announcement soon" hahahahaha that one really cracked me up.
      As far as being a wimp and getting out of the market......not a wimp....but may get out after 25 years, DD doesn't mean shit these days with hedge funds, SHO, naked shorting etc etc. There are better investments these days than to contribute to a situation that one has no control over. Everybody on this board, including myself is an idiot for holding this thing from 26 down, (I'm in at 35)even if it pops to 50, it was still bad decisions, tax ramifications and all.
      Maybe Monday you can call up Otto for us, get the inside scoop, and then pass it on to us.....before they make a formal "Announcement", I'm sure he'll take your call if you explain to him who you are!

    • kissoflife12000,

      Looks like you're right- at least this appears to be the case on Friday. Hopefully, they're done...

    • So you're bitter? Grow up, no one gives a shit. Where did I say the CFO returned my phone call? I never spoke to the CFO and I never said that. Get your facts straight before you call someone out asshole.

      I spoke to IR. If you don't want to believe that, I don't give a shit. And yes, I believe there will be a buyback. Do I know when? No. Do I know for sure there will be a plan? No.

      I gave my opinion, that's what people do on message boards.

      I'm losing my ass also but at least I'm not blaming others on this board. Everything I've said on this board is the truth as I see it. Have I been wrong on this stock? Damn right I have been, so far.

      As far as listening to me or anyone on this board to make decisions on whether to buy/hold/sell, that's just plain foolish.

      Never buy a stock based on what anyone says on a message board- that's ridiculous. By the way, if you noticed, earlier in the day on Friday someone asked for peoples opinion on DECK. I said I have no idea what's going to happen. That opinion remains. I don't have a clue what's going to happen with this stock for the short-term, but I'm holding because I still believe it will go back up, at some point.

      I suggest you sell DECK because it's clear you can't handle the pressure of a stock going down. In fact, you probably shouldn't even be in the stock market. Wimps like you can't handle the ups/downs of the stock market and it will just drive you crazy.

    • Well, I presume that if they did window dress in April, it'd be by shorting more.

      But those guys (bane to longs the world around) really report more than mutual funds? Anybody here actually own shares in one?

    • And by the's past 12 o'clock ...where's the pop???
      The same place the 5 dollar pops that you claimed to have experienced in DECK???? In your imagination maybe??????

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