I went to the mall yesterday. Looked at all the shoe store sales. Uggs were NOT on sale while almost all other brands were. I am short DECK, does this mean that people are still willing to pay full retail price for these shoes? Maybe, but sales have got to be slowing down. Why? Because the competition is selling a similar shoe for half the price. I sticking with my short position for now but will keep a close eye. Has anyone out there seen these UGG shoes on sale anywhere?
UGGS retail distribution is at better grade stores, which sell all they can get at full retail mark up. For this past holiday season UGGS sold through better and at higher price points than ever before. The problem for DECK stock as an investment is that UGG is a seasonal winter brand. TEVA and SIMPLE, the company's other brands, don't enjoy near the popularity of UGGS. So, the company is a one trick pony with the UGGS brand. UGGS is great, and due to the product quality , functionality, and consumer acceptance, the UGGS shoes will maintain their shelf space and sales revenues for 2009/2010. However, as a stock I believe UGGS popularity is priced in the stock here at $1 billion market cap, 2X sales.