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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • moneynow27 moneynow27 Oct 28, 2010 4:25 PM Flag

    There's no way in h this is worth this multiple

    No, I'm not short, but I will be either in AH or tomorrow morning.

    DECK is trading at higher multiples than any other apparel company, and other than Apple products, the consumer remains DOA.

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    • This is a brand, in fact, it's 2 great brands.

      Teva just hit the $100 M revenue mark for the first time, and is positioned to regain its rightful place as the leader in the water shoe space, an industry that Teva invented. Then, Angel Martinez partnered with designer Martin Keen, and started their own water shoe brand to compete against Teva, and it was aptly named Keen. They feasted on Teva's complacency and lack of fashon and new innovation. After launching and building Keen, Martinez retired for the 2nd time, only coming out retirement to lead DECK. Since joining DECK a bunch of yrs ago, he has revitalized Teva and is now gunning for the top spot again. I would vote with a proven winner like Martinez.

      UGG...a global sensation with only 24% of its business overseas. Should be 75%, and the US/North America is still not fully built out. There are plenty of knock offs (just like there are plenty of knock offs of Coach bags) but the fake (or FUgg -- fake Ugg)) will never be the real thing.

      I think this one still has a lot of legs.

      $12 a share in cash by year end. If you deduct that from the price of the stock and then divide into real eanrings (not the more conservatve guidance provided), you will see that this stock is undervalued, and quite cheap, not expensive at all.

    • This is footwear. There was so much euphoria regarding SKX. I shorted it under 40 and then it went over 40 and I shorted a little more, covered back under 40 and then re-shorted. The stock is around 20 now and there wasn't a split.

      DECK has products, but SKX also has products beyond that exercise shoe they've marketed. I don't expect DECK to be cut in half as SKX did, but the euphoria and seeing all the positives and ignoring any negatives, such as whether a better holiday season than is likely is already priced into DECK.

      I think DECK is more likely to move with other apparel stocks, including apparel retailers.

      BTW, someone posted DECK will go back to 100. Actually, due to a 3 for 1 split, the equivalent of the pre-split 100 is 33 1/3. DECK was over 150 I think or near it at the time of the split, so DECK is now higher than that. If it goes higher, I think there will be a fast reversal within about 1 to 1 1/2 points up from here. Remember, the rally prior to earnings priced in a lot of the good news.

      That's my opinion. I think high end retail's retail is over now. Thus, I covered my KSS short and tried shorting a higher end retailer along with a very small position (now on the short side) with DECK. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, but the bulls on DECK can be wrong, too.

      BTW, AMED was an IBD favorite. So were SIGM and many other stocks you are likely more familiar with.

      That's just my take on DECK after the after earnings bounce. I re-evaluate again re: whether to cover or add more. Even if nothing else pulling DECK down, there is a gap between where it closed pre-earnings and where it traded after earnings. That gap could be filled before or after the next move.

    • Whoops! You didn't do your homework.

    • >>DECK is trading at higher multiples than any other apparel company

      DECK is a shoe company and has a lower multiple than ANY competitor. In fact, MUCH MUCH lower. It has a peg ratio of .6 clueless.

      some people deserve to lose money

    • Remember the split? 15-20 points was before the split. How many of you value folks shorted the open on CMG after earnings? How about the PE on CRM? Short away!

    • ok i saw that

      but i didn't think he was talking about tomorrow

    • he said 20-25 points; that's the 74-80 range.

    • You know nothing ... Please go ahead and short ah.

    • To be fair, DECK is a good company.

      That said, the daily chart is a mess (way too wide and loose, as O'Neil from IBD would say, the weekly is ok, but overbought, and the monthly chart is very overbought.

      Bottom line? I think the stock pulls back after tomorrow, and then maybe rallies into the Xmas season, but not before a healthy correction, IMHO.

    • Friendly word of advice: You are over-analyzing.

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