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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • spamwithlilsugar spamwithlilsugar Apr 2, 2012 2:18 PM Flag

    shorts are going to ride it into earnings

    I think they will hold it right here around the $63 level until DECK reports. Maybe we'll see a little covering ahead of the report as it is so oversold at this point! jmo of course!

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    • I gotta admit to you that part of the reason I'm sounding negative is that I emailed IR people a few weeks ago and questioned their stance re: guidance, etc. and they were kind enough to email me back and ask me to call. When I got off the phone with them I was even less enchanted as nothing positive was said to me whatsoever. I mentioned I was hopeful that the guidance may have been conservative and that perhaps they'd surprise us next Q but I didn't get that warm fuzzy feeling from the phone call. My feelings are that they just expect shareholders to be satisfied with waiting a year or more out for more positive projections and most people now days aren't willing to sit it out that long (me included). The street is unforgiving. I sold half my position at a loss of course but am still sitting on some shares and again they've totally underperformed and hurt my portfolio value but I am willing to sit it out until earnings or perhaps just before they report. Margins are important and cashflow and I don't see much improvement in either category. Some of you guys got in early and are probably sitting on a nice profit but not the case for me. I've taken a considerable hit thus far by holding on! If they don't report more favorably than they projected, I think 50's and possibly even 40's in the foreseeable future. I hope I'm wrong! I'm not short and just trying to make a little money off my long positions! GLTA!

    • I have no idea what you mena by "blah" tone. They can't change reality. The reality is that the company's earnings will be flat for 2012 but as of 2013 revenues should being utpacing the costs of sheepskin again, thereby leading to increase in earnings. This isn't a blackjack game or a roulette game. Business's in real life face headwinds, but to see beyond the headwins for this company is very simple.


    • Excellent counter. I am still asking the question: Near-term what will shake the shorts out of their positions? Near-term numbers will not be good based on what management claims is such a higher price for sheepskin lowering margins and turning the next quarter to a negative profit. I have read both sides of the argument of a warmer winter (it was very warm in the US midwest) leading to softer sales. Personally I believe the shorts are generating all the negative press to keep their positions winning. As a Deckers Outdoor believer, a nice rumor of a buyout would be fun to watch. Does management always sound that downbeat on their conference calls? Such a blah tone other than the brief description of having record revenue for the year. I hate to admit I have only listened to the last one.

    • Have you done your homework spam?

      What is your 5yr projected growth rate for DECK?

      • 1 Reply to jaquecroissant
      • Jacques I'm not thinking that far out. At this juncture DECK isn't the type of company I'd hold for 5 years. I think its a momentum stock and I was hoping to make a quick profit but that didn't workout for me! MCD, AAPL, LVS, COP and some others are more long term. I'd like to see DECK turnaround and be profitable again but I have to admit I was very discouraged with this recent report and guidance. Truthfully and I'll probably get bashed for saying this but I've seen other companies with the same problem as far as higher commodity prices to deal with and other companies have learned to work through it - whether it be corn prices, sheepskin, etc. This management needs to better balance itself and keep better apprised of its costs. jmo but they could do better and a dividend would definitely help. Sheepskin may become more affordable but it'll happen again. Its management's job to keep this all in balance! No excuse for that guidance call whatsoever!

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