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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • becarefulwhatyoupay becarefulwhatyoupay Oct 26, 2012 6:35 PM Flag

    2013 Deckers expectations

    I expect Ugg brand sales will decline approximately 50% from current annual levels. That is a typical deline when a brand name/footwear item falls out of fashion favor. retailers pull way back on their future order bookings and consumers wear a newer style of footwear.
    Deckers other large volume brand, Teva, since it is exanding into closed footwear styling, will probably have a single didgit increase in its annual sales. But Teva's annual revenues are about 105 of Ugg's, so a moderate Teva sales increase will not have much impact on Deckers total revenue picture.
    Deckers other brands are insignificant in terms of revenues, so no impact to the coming years Deckers total revneus.
    My best guess is that a year from now deckers will have about $500 million annual sales and a market cap of 1x sales, or about a $12 to $15 per share price. To make the best of it Deckers management
    should right now be discounting inventory (which they are doing to help move boots through their retail customer's stores). And deckers should be laying off employees, closing their retail stores etc... reducing costs wherever possible so that perhaps a year from now Deckers can work as a smaller company.
    Once inventories are aat a reasonable level Deckers can move forward deemphaziing the Ugg brand and trying to build the Teva brand.

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