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there is one failsafe way to "unlock the value of a company" (whatever that means) and that is to pay a dividend. if deck was paying a dividend they would've never been on the map of the company that has decimated its stock.
Parkchair, I'm very happy about the 300M dollar buyback. But after the buy-back is finsihed, I do believe the company should initiate some sort of dividend(.25% to start). There will only be 30M shares or so outstanding a year from now. This company is earning over 140M. 30M X 0.25 = 8-10M/year for dividend purposes to start. It's not a bad start and would start the healing process for the share price. But buying back 300M worth of shares or about 8M after all is said and done for about 40/share will prove to be a steal in time.
Parkchair, you sound ridiculous. There is no proof that stock buybacks are used as a backsto for s tock price. That is not what a company is doing when it buys back its shares. It just isn't. This is business 101; when you have an undervalued asset, you make an investment. Deckers management started to believe the company as becoming undervalued when it it hit 72/share. It initiated 100M worth of buyback. The stock went down EVEN MORE, so Deckers management made the astute decision to blow through the first 100M in a few months as opposed to a full year and quickly initiated another 200M buyback. Not to backstop the stock price; they can't do that. But to BUY more of their undervalued(in their and our eyes) stock . It's a great move and something that ANGEL will get plenty of credit for in the coming years after the stock stabilizes. Nobody is going to pat him on the back now with the stock where it is today but he has no control over how the market reacts to the buyback actions or the tough year Deckers is going through.
I can;t stress enough how tough it is to get consumers to buy products today and the fact that Deckers UGG brand has shown the ability to haul in 150M+ in its worst sales growth year of the last 7 years should not go unnoticed. This is a tremendous haul.
O man, must have ruffled some feather Parkchair; it's not everyday I get such compliments ;).
Again, as for your statements, first off, they are completely off base. You show you lack of understanind regarding investing. I don;t care how long you've been doing it, save that for someone who doesn;t care. As for the substance of your statements, its clear you havent been doing it well.
I'm not stating that a buyback can not be a "backstop" for a stock price, but if a short or shorts use the thesis that the UGG brand is dying or dead and the other lines will amount to nothing in the future, then no amount of buyback wills to those guys in their tracks. They are making a bet that this company will be worthless(worth less) in the coming years regardless of a buyback as a dead brand is a dead brand, no matter how many shares outstanding.
You are making a fool of yourself if you continue to think that the buyback of 300M was used just to backstop the stock price. The company's future will benefit more from this stock drop and buyback in the future. Don;t you see buying shares at 3 year lows is an oppurtunity to not be wasted. Most companies initiate buybacks in "great" times for companies, but we all know companies aren't cheap in great times; so those EO's and companies are just wasting investors money.
But buying back when "nobody" wants your stock is a great investment decision as there is clear value here. As for the company buying shares at more than double the stock price, the avg share bought back by this company is less tahn 47 at this point.
Oh man, this comany didn't call the bottom!!!! You didn't either!!!! Because no one can. The company si just laying the best hand it can in this situation. You're welcome for the education; I'm here everyday ;).
indian, all that i can tell you is that when i read your posts, i immediately get the bad feeling that i made a giant mistake buying deck stock because its just not very likely that such a dunce is calling a winner. its possible, just not likely.
and if you don't understand that the buyback was to support the stock price and believe instead that deck spent 300 million buying back their stock because they thought that it was so cheap, then that makes you a bigger rambone than deck would be having paid 3 times what they needed to and therefore making a very poor investment decision.
seriously indian, go eat a bowl of cereal and get ready to watch cramer. and remember, the $200 that you are playing around with today could be $400 in ten years, that is, IF you play your cards right....
RE: Parkchair, While I certainly don't have the inside track, I don't think the buyback was all that bad. Yes, they did buy some shares at higher rates, however they also are buying back more shares at historical lows. Over the long haul this will work out. Paying a dividend would be nice, but that isn't the holy grail either. I think they have a very specific business plan and are following it. It's a long road to success and we just have to endure the Posner's, market swings, costs, and economic stresses that come with the territory. Deck isn't the only stock being tested today, but it is a solid company, be patient.
indian, you are a solid #$%$ every sentence you write reaks of "i know more about investing than anyone in my family". please do me a favor and put me on ignore. its no small wonder that big banks make billions in prop trading every quarter. can you guess where that money comes from? yep, geniuses like you who think you know what you're talking about because you watched cramer everyday and learned a few buzz words here and there. i don't think i've ever come across a bigger blowhard in my 15 years of being on these boards, and believe me, i've come across many clueless blowhards. kudos...
Parkchair, use your words son.
I'm sorry I haven't let the stocks price action dictate my investing decison, I leave that to amateurs/investors like yourself. You're so brilliant for not liking the stock price down, kudos to you for your initiative to overreact and complain. Who else would have the brilliance and insight to do that?
Let's all yell at ANGEL, its all his fault for the stock price dropping. What a nut to use investors money and buy 300M worth of shares at hat will amount to less than 45/avg when all is said and done.
All that matters to you is that the stock price is down. You don't care that the company is earning over 150M, you're crying and moaning becaue the stock price is down. You're EMOTIONAL! You're in short term pain like the rest of us, but all you're doing is crying and B..t...g. You're the guy who just screams when under attack, wasting useful energy that can be spent on thinking clearly and rationally. You are not. You are letting the stock price and its decline dictate your thoughts. Very dangerous. You need to step back and pretend for a second you're not invested in this company. Why would you invest in this business and can you understand that things take TIME!? I don't think you get that just because there are roblems(every company faces them) doesn't mean it can't be fixed in time, such as DECKERS inventory levels.
Like I said, Angel is making the best of the hand the warm winter dealt us last year along with a mistake in pricing. But two years from now, with 8M shares less available due to the buyback, and time to work though the inventory we have built up, along with hopefully some solid growth in our other brands, this comany will be sitting retty. But you chicken heads never stick around. You get too worked up and then give up.
lol not using your words parkchair like we talked about. Don't get angry calling me names. That just means you're giving in. I would say that I believe most eople agree with my thoughts regarding time. Everybody ants instant this, instnant that, not realizing this is a business. Not like asking your mom for a cookie, not getting it, so crying and then you get the cookie. Not here buddy. grow up Parkchair. Be less emotional and be in it for the long haul. Thanks for reading this post ;) Good luck. Hope you stick around long enough to reap the rewrds.
like i said, i feel great about deck, especially at this price. the only thing that bothers me is that a complete potzer like you does also. its been a while since i saw someone so completely clueless. now maybe you just got lucky getting into deck. or maybe you are one of cramer's zombies and you are here from $100 a share. either way, i don't like to learn that someone like you likes the same stock i do. fwiw... and don't waste your time with your long posts about what angel does and thinks because 1) you have no clue and 2) i don't read them...