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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • american_chariot american_chariot Feb 28, 2013 9:39 AM Flag

    I hate PPS-predictions on stocks...dumb, imo, but...

    But I don't mind some general sentiment or directional movement prognostications. Put it this way, I'd be much more worried at $50 or $60, but am much less so at $40! I think the short premise is that "Uggs are a fad and dead" and I know that is a very bunk notion, from close proximity to sales, sentiment and distributorship strength! Still, Deckers in an enduring, endearing, and high-quality brand that has a lot more going for it than Uggs. Some other poster lambasted Deck with ideas that that aren't in vogue anymore, and apparently, that's his whole premise for remaining negative on Deck. Yet, this is the first year I have worn Deck shoes myself, and they are awesome---beautiful black leather with their signature and classic shearling-lined wool! Awesome. Still, Uggs are much more than "Classic Talls". In fact, they are now popular in such styles as Bailey Buttons, classic shorts, knit-sweater, and a host of "other styles".

    I think Deck got ahead of themselves with inventory, then they got hit with high sheep-skin prices, a one-two punch that is taking quite a while to correct. But correct they will, imo. I also think "short dumb money" sees this as such an easy short, based on this notion that "Ugly Uggs are out"...but I think this is a simpleton, ignorant assessment of a company that is such more more than "Classic Tall, traditional women's Ugg-boost". I'm not assessing that this 4th quarter will show gang-buster results...but I think it will prove that the worst is behind them. I think the trading-stock DECK has had enough time to adjust to a new EPS-reality, which is well north of $2.00+, yet south of their former $4.00. IMO, $4.00+ plus made them a $65-$100 dollar stock, and $2-3 now makes them a $35-65 dollar stock, imo. I wouldn't feel this way if Uggs indeed were way out of fashion, much like Cabbage Patch dolls or something, but no matter how weak or misguided one may view management's past actions (super missing estimates quarter-after-quarter, borrowing money to buy-back stock at too high prices, huge-over-build of inventory and then the gall to build a new HQ on top of all that blundering!), they haven't sat idle with only "one or two style boots" in their portfolio. No, not only have they tastefully expanded their women's offering, but they have also expanded into a nice men's line of Uggs, along with a host of accessories, and their turn-around efforts via expansion, is their push to open their own stores! So, really no matter their failings, imo, Deckers continues to be a premium brand, with a strong portfolio of products, with a broad, desired appeal...and they aren't 100% at the mercy of their distributors, b/c of their effort to open their own stores. This is the very least, imo, makes this an attractive candidate for buy-out purchase, in and of themselves, especially at current valuations, and I still believe there will be a bid coming, imo. Of course, I'm not relying on that for my investment here. Rather, buy-out or not, I believe in the brand, especially at this PPS!

    In closing, this is a very poor short candidate at this PPS, and I think it is more "herd driven" than fact-based driven! We'll see, and best of luck to all the believers out there!

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