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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • threedeedong threedeedong Feb 28, 2013 6:38 PM Flag

    My three cents on DECK / earnings

    When you have this RIDICULOUSLY high short interest in DECK (40%+) -- reminiscent of GMCR, ANF and most of all NFLX to name a few -- and a re-assuring ER beat it means that all those who thought that the stock was going BK, or dropping to single digits, are in essence proved wrong and will need to unwind. Look at the reaction on those 3 stocks and you will see what *would* need to happen if the street changes its mind on DECK and gets bullish.

    If wall street does the correct thing and rewards DECK with a higher forward multiple (which would be justified given this ER beat and revised 2013 views) it will take many days for short positions to be unwound, possibly over a week or two. The bounce will not be a one day event. Estimates would be raised over the next few weeks by sell side firms who will front-run those announcements as they always do.

    Well, given the fact that this ER was healthy, and that DECK also launched a slew of new product lines successfully, it does not seem to be that DECK is going BK, at least not in the near term.

    Then again, wall street tends to screw the little guys and if big institutions were heavily short they will work with the MMs to keep this down. Options interest is also a factor as the MMs will not want to get fleeced on all the calls they sold over the last 2 months.

    My 3c is to buy ANY weakness tomorrow. The MMs will try to play head games with the longs, and traders hoping to cash in on earnings. But inevitably the holders of those 8 million shares short need to start covering, so it's a waiting game that longs will eventually win.

    Just my 3 cents.


    Sentiment: Buy

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