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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • reality90210 reality90210 Mar 1, 2013 8:04 AM Flag

    Today's very important message to all longs

    Don't sell. Shorts will try to take your shares because they need to cover.
    Remember, although not stellar the earnings were ok.
    The question is- Is the situation improving? The answer to that is a resounding YES.
    Invest forward, not based on history, as there's nothing anyone can do to change history.

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    • The highest volume is @ $51 one year ago. If you shorted at $51, you are still making money. However, things will change if it goes above $51 and then funds will be forced to take a look and close positions. The risk/reward is favor reward if we hold here. We have a chance to go above $51 if we hold, if we sell, the worst case is that they short more and weak hands shake out, it drops to $42 but you don't know if it will drop, if you sell, there is a chance that you will never be able to buy back at $42, even if it drops to $42, you only lose $3 per share if you hold, do the math!

    • Normally I would agree with you here, but the timing of the new weekly options occurring the day before ER was suspicious and reeks of crookery, and leads me to believe we go lower/sideways until March OpEx on 3/15.

      Come 3/18 though, assuming there isn't a market meltdown, it should be safe to go "all in" while the squeeze takes place. Any pressure via short hedging with calls (gobbled up 40 or below) should be released.

      I hope I'm wrong here for all you longs, but the game is crooked, you gotta play by the rules.

    • DON'T SELL!! This sqeeze will hurt and I wouldn't be surprised if this stock touches $50 today

    • reality, why do you say that the "situation is improving"? to me the sales numbers were surprising bad. i expected to see deck's usually 20+% rev growth, especially since the yoy comparison was to last winter. i think some things are improving (the sanuk and teva sales increases were good, for example), but the overall rev numbers were really surprising to me.

      • 1 Reply to parkchair
      • Park, the situation is getting so much worse that the stock has gone up 12%. Are you happy now? You have to look at the big picture: a steady (if not strong) brand, a clean balance sheet, a compelling (at least attractive) valuation, a product that will go away but cannot be replicated (imitators are plenty, which by itself is an affirmation of UGG's brand strength). Why do you have to sell at $45 unless you really need the money now? Sit tight, longs, we will hit $60 when the next few quarters show the market an improving margin!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I'm perfectly fine with that. Shorts can moan all they want, I can sit and hold forever if I want.

59.55+0.25(+0.42%)Sep 30 4:02 PMEDT