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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • johndoolittle46 johndoolittle46 Apr 26, 2013 5:47 PM Flag

    can you believe that at 1 point this year

    This company was valued at just 1 billion for.a.couple days? In the same year it produced 290m in cash?

    Hard to believe. Now they want to still play the game of what if? Its just ridiculous. This company is much stronger than a year ago and cash should be stronger this year thanks to lower aheepskin costs and ugg pure.

    Do not be fooled. Goldman sachs isnt.


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    • Just make sure you are not playing over your head as they can tank this to 40 or even lower and just STEAL your shares. They did it from 120-28(75% pullback over 18 months) despite the company producing basicaly 350M in that time.

      They had 246M in cash when the stock was at the peak(118 two years ago), and no debt. Over the next 18 months, they bought 221M worth of stock and have 60M in cash and have authorization to buy-back another 79M worth of shares(1.5M shares at todays closing price).

      At the end of this year(2013), company should have roughly 300M in cash, roughly 33M shares outstanding.

      So over two years, earnings will be off by 10%(due to higher sheepskin) and 20% more cash, and 15% less shares outstanding and another year of cash ahead in 2014. Can you say oversold today? Last 18 months? You bet.

      But they can and in my opinion will try to steal more shares with another pullback. I'm surrised at the pullback as the numbers don't jusify it, but not surprised at the shenanigans.

      Margin squeezing is the OLDEST trick in the book and like I stated, they took this company to 990M dollar valuation for a few days THIS YEAR and then produced 250M cash. So make sure you can withstand the shenanigans pulled which is theoretically anything(as today shows and the lat 18 months have proved).

      But just look at insider transactions.


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