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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • johndoolittle46 johndoolittle46 Apr 27, 2013 8:00 PM Flag

    What can be used as the excuse this time

    When the stock fell from 118 to 28 the continuous B filtered out by the likes of clowns like Sam Poser(who is now long lol) is that UGGS were a FAD(sam, were you making that u old buddy?)

    Stock tanked. It didn;t help that sheeskin costs and warm winter collided either but the companys revenues only went down 10% at the time because of the warm winter and increase in prices due to sheepskin.

    But that is all in the past now for the most part. Sheepkin costs for 2013 are less than 2012. There is a more diverse UGG product line. Management is opening up another 28 stores in the next 240 days(which pay for themselves within a year!
    Management forecasts a VERY CONSERVATIVE 7% growth in revenues for 2013(cautious as a result of the high rate of cancellations in 2012 due to the warmer winter in 2011) but really should not have the same bearing this coming season as this ongoing LONG WINTER shows its a decent gamble to have UGGS in the store because when there is COLD weather, the product flies off the shelf!

    So what is the BS excuse they can come out with? Nothing. This is purely a "sell-off" to squeeze longs on margin. THEY(I honestly have no idea who THEY are but THEY do exist as yesterdays sell-off shows) can squeeze very hard as I persoanlly experienced from 80-28/share in less than a year myself.

    It ain't fun. But T-1699 days, I know it makes no difference.


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    • Judging by the constant posting it appears that someone has a love affair going on with DECK. Careful or she will break your heart. Don't be so attached and you will be better off for it.

      • 1 Reply to jwm1031
      • I have a love affair with companies that produce lots of cash as well as good earnings as well as management that is innovative and takes advantage of oppurtunities give(like the initial 100M buy-back FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY by the aggressive 200M buyback of stock at 5 year lows) that was paid back in LESS THAN 1 YEAR!

        I also enjoy calling out the shenanigans that wall street likes to pull with the volatility and the overdramatic moves as if it the stock going down changes the fact that the company produces 250M in cash in the year when sheepskin costs were at the highest ever for the company.

        So Wall Street can just bring it as far as I am concerned as Johndoolittle is here to stay and they can shake the tree hard, very hard as they have already done through my expeirence the last 18 months, but the clock is ticking at this valuation and it reads 1697 days ;)

        Yes, I'm counting.


    • you said "Stock tanked. It didn;t help that sheeskin costs and warm winter collided either but the companys revenues only went down 10% at the time because of the warm winter "

      really? let me ask you a question: what were UGG line revenues THIS WINTER in Q4 (which was cold) compared to the revenues in Q4 last winter which was extremely warm????

      your warm winter theory as a one off is ridiculous

      • 1 Reply to skinnyschmatlis
      • "you're right". Just ignore 250M in cash and CONSERVATIVE forecast of 7% revenue growth, opening 20 stores in international markets and 8 more in USA.

        Ignore share buyback and therefore higher EPS and while growth would be beautiful, even flat revenues of 1.4+B/ year is not bad when your company is producing 250M in cash flow that would have been more than DOUBLE, YES DOUBLE, had sheepskin costs not risen for 2 consecutive years.

        This valuation is comletely out of whack compared to other shoe companies who all have the same "risks" and don't earn as much as DECKERS does in a bad year nor do they earn as much CASH(which is the real reason we are all here).

        So wall street can bump and create volatility as much as they want, but IT DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACTS which is why we are up nearly 90% off the lows 8 months ago.

        Can we retest the lows for some crazy reason? I never put it past WS to do the craziest scenario.. It is the MO of the street to do the opposite of reality for the longest period of time.


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