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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • johndoolittle46 johndoolittle46 May 1, 2013 3:44 PM Flag

    Now 1694 days

    Look at that, stock went up and down this week. Nothing has changed. No new information since the earnings report that makes a difference except in 236 days, 79M worth of shares will have been bought back and 250-300M will be on the books. Just 1694 days to go. Go jogging, read a book, relax as this product is the most popular every christmas season and company is innovating. Nothing to fear! Everything bad has been more than discounted out of the stock and the 10 year bond being down 50% from 3 years ago before this sheepskin stuff happened, provides wind at our back as investors look for copanies producing the most cash in the least amount of time(deckers).

    You don't need margin. 5X your money in 5-10 years. Cash and earnings WILL justify it. Just take a look at starbucks chart, was at 7./share in 2008(5 year lows) and now at 60/share(all-time high's).

    Just be patient and let the days go by. But don't waste them. Do things. Plenty of things to do for free while your money grows. Then in 5 years, we all spend ;)

    Here for the next 1694 days or 10B valuation, whichever comes first ;)


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    • "You don't need margin. 5X your money in 5-10 years"

      great then. you'll be rich. now can you #$%$?

      • 2 Replies to skinnyschmatlis
      • Do you tell carl icahn or Bill ackman to #$%$ when they become activists for the stocks they invest in? This message board is nothing but negative trolls who have been saying don't buy even in the thirties. Now the stock is up 100% off the lows and they are somehow still solvent and have made money by day trading this jittery, bi-polar stock? Get real. they are losers. They have no facts. I HAVE FACTS and I will speak them as much and as often as I like as over the next 1694 days, the stock appreciation will speak for itself.

        How can the stock market price a company that has the same amount in cash then as it is currently being valued? My talking about it out only brings the facts to light, it doesnt change them. The stock WILL go up as the cash is made and at this price and lower, investors are being ridiculously incentivized to invest their money as every year 13.6% of their risk based on this valuation is taken off the table. So basically, in 236 days, 13.6% risk will be off the table, and one will theoretically be risking just 87% of their money at that point and so on. More risk being taken off as time passes and more cash produced. That is how you make money in stocks. By predicting which companies are going to print the most cash the fastest. Not the companies growing the fastest(not important if they don't make cash off the growth).



      • I want everyone to be rich with me. There is no real basis for this stock to be trading this ridiculously cheap(only GS wanted in at 5 year lows) so they made sure it happens(because goldman somehow makes money every day/every investment because that is normal right?).

        Once you learn the game and not to play with margin(which will always be your downfall even if you are right, the volatility and the GS manipulation) will make sure you get screwed. But if you own the stock, own it completey be it 5 shares or 50000, there is no amount of shenanigans they can pull to force you to sell. You are in control and at this valuation, 5X your money can reasonably be made in the next 5-10 years(comes out to 50% YOY avg return over the full 10) as now it is just a matter of 1694 days till potential future cash just matches current valuation(not valuing in anything for the actual business that produces said cash).

        There are no real discussions on message boards. CNBC is the only "voice" and they just parrot the incoherent amateur persective(because they are "journalists", not money managers) and the money managers that do come on, their percentage return is never shown for a reason(as these guys don't beat any index's and they make the easy 2% year for buying index funds with other eople's money). It is the biggest con.

        But I will share my education and experience and I will call things as I see them as somebody has to. Business is business and the way you value a business is how much cash it produces. As Warren buffet says, present value-future cash. Not present value-future earnings but CASH(he's self-made multi-billionaire from the stock market so I figure he must have the formula down at, now I just copy it and wait ;)


54.15-2.72(-4.78%)Oct 21 4:01 PMEDT