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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • reality90210 reality90210 May 10, 2013 10:29 AM Flag

    squeeze is on

    for those of you that have actually been following the stock, the short interest went down by 7.4% as of 4/30
    short interest is now less than a third of the total float. There are less and less shares available as the volume continues to indicate and all it'll take is one analyst or one bit of news to shoot this stock up into the mid sixties-70s range. Stay long. This is a stock worth owning!

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    • It is just about waiting. Foward p/e is just 12.5. Company is forecasting 7% growth along with introduction of ugg pure which will be at a lower price point. Management being very convservative when I believe they know that UGG pure is going to be a huge hit due to the lower price point.

      There is no question UGGS brand name is worth as much as we are trading. Its future cash will make it set new highs in the next 24 months as that is what this all about. Waiting for future cash to raise the valuation. In 240 days we will have about 250-300M on the books and no debt outstading.

      In 600 days we will have half a billion on the books. The company just prints cash and with prudent measures taken to mitigate sheepskin costs(UGG pure) and the reduction in sheepskin costs compared to 2012, cash should INCREASE more than produced this past year with sheepskin at record highs for us.

      Just patience. I look at companies like Lululemon and Under Armour and basically every other company compared to Deckers. Not one company makes cash as fast as DEckers does nor is one company trading as cheap as Deckers(12.5 p/e). As for insider sales, Deckers has had NONE in the last 18 months(except for 1 small transaction) and management has bought back 15% of company at 5 year lows(47.50/share).

      The market makes no sense in the short term, but those buying into UA and Lululemon and virtiually any other company are not going to be outperfroming us over the next 60 month period as our cash alone is going to match our current company's value.


      • 1 Reply to johndoolittle46
      • They are just waiting for more time to pass. One just needs to look at insider sales(besides the 50% discount in stock price for a company with such a popular product) and go "well, if they didn't feel the need to sell in 18 months and they own that many shares" clearly I should see no reason to sell. These guys know more than any of us what is going on with the company.

        It is like when the titanic was sinking in the movie and the guy says " well, if this is the way the rats are headed, it is good enough for me". No offense to management, but in this case, they are the rats and if they were unloading shares every month at THIS low valuation, I would be pretty concerned with my analyst abilities. But they haven't done anything.


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