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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • johndoolittle46 johndoolittle46 May 18, 2013 11:28 PM Flag

    company is projecting 7% growth in revenues for 2013

    and 5% rise in EPS.

    Balance sheet prior to 4th quuarter was 60M cash, 266M debt
    Blanace sheet AFTER 4th quarter was 133M cash, 30M debt

    That is a turn around of 290M!

    Now management is forecasting growth and being conservative. But lets play worst case scenario and pretend cash flow in 4th quarter Declines 10% year for the next 8 years in the 4th quarter.

    2013- 290M
    2014- 261M
    2015- 234.9M
    2016- 211.41M
    2018- 171.24M
    2019- 154.117M
    2020- 138.75M

    8 years = 1.65B dollars. Current valuation? 1.81B with 60M in cash and just 10M in debt.


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    • Now just imagine cash flow stays flat or goes positive as management and common sense project and you have a company that in basically less than 8 years will have more cash accrued than current valuation. In just 230 days, we will have 14% of that total.


    • On the balance sheet, qtr 9/30 to 12/31, the inventory went down inventory went down $186 million which freed up cash to pay down debt, it didn't come all from earnings. That inventory will rise again for 9/30/13 to support the winter peak sales and cash flow will shrink or go negative. Your posts are very misleading. There is NOT a sustained cash flow as you state. There is no "turn around" in the magnitude you state. You need to learn how to read a balance sheet. What you are spewing here is false and misleading.

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