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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

  • stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Sep 3, 2013 6:55 PM Flag

    Exiting Deck.

    I dislike exiting because the potential is there for $75.

    But.. the last few weeks have formed a classic "Rising Wedge". I've taken my profits and I'm going to watch from the sidelines. If it takes off- grats to thos who stick it out.

    Entered SPY last friday for a 2-6 week bounce of what I think was the low last thursday.

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    • Earnings are the catalyst. The "bad" 3rd quarter is priced in at this level due to the stock baiscally idling this whole time and selling off 8% last quarter to 53 in July.

      It is my opinion that 4th quarter for this year is not priced in yet, which with current interest rates should be around 2.6-2.8B valuation to properly price in this years earnings.

      Then going foward, into next years first quarter, we should get up to about 3.2B imo and then likely idle for awhile with a possible sell-off AFTER pricing in the 1st quarter through the 3rd quarter for 2014.

      I then believe going from 3rd quarter 2014-1st quarter 2015 stock should rise up nicely over 4B.

      Going into full year 2015, stock should close around 5-5.5B.

      Just my humble opinion. Saw something similat with Under armour the last 3 years.


      • 1 Reply to questioncnbc
      • I just can't say it enough; this management is holding more than 35M of stock and there have been JUST 2 insider transactions in the last 22 months.

        So whether or not your rising wedge comes to fruition and we sell off, management is clearly saying at this price the last 5 months we are TOO CHEAP for them to sell their mountain of shares despite it being worth a combined 35M+.

        I mean we all get oppurtunities in life; some people choose to ignore the obvious and some people go with the flow and get paid.


56.87-0.63(-1.10%)Oct 20 4:02 PMEDT