Why managements projections are again too conservative
Despite reiteration of raised guidance, management i being too conservative which is setting us up for a huge beat in 4th quarter.
1. Last quarter when management raised guidance to 8% increase in EPS along with 14% increase in revenues for 4th quarter, oil was at 108/barrel. Oil is now 10% cheaper and the pumps are already reflecting cheaper prices. This is more money in consumers pockets. As we becommore energy independent, this will be adding even more money to consumers pockets.
2. Management has stated they are forecasting an increase of EPS from 3.73 to 3.80 as a result of 2m tax credit. But this doesn't include the obvious fact or near obvious fact, that the 79M left of money available to be used to buyback stock WILL LIKELY BE USED this quarter, potentially buying back 1M shares(or 3% of shares) increasing EPS even more.