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Lynas Corporation Limited Message Board

  • fastmoney_2011 fastmoney_2011 Dec 31, 2010 7:49 PM Flag

    WEST Australian Premier Colin Barnett expects China's cut in exports

    of rare-earth minerals will boost projects.

    He hopes it could help create a new dimension to the state's booming minerals sector.

    China has cut its export quotas for the first half of next year by 35 per cent.

    But industry analysts believe that will even out in the second half of the year, resulting in an overall 5 per cent drop on this year's export total of 30,259 tonnes.

    Demand outside China, which supplies more than 90 per cent of rare-earth metals to the world for use in high-technology electronics, is expected to be close to 60,000 tonnes next year.

    Mr Barnett yesterday said China's move would benefit Lynas Corporation's Mount Weld project in WA's Goldfields, the richest known deposit of rare earths outside China.

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    "The Chinese dominance of the market has always concerned other users of rare earth, and now their restriction of exports will give a boost to the Lynas Mount Weld project in Western Australia, which is very close to achieving production," Mr Barnett said.

    "You may well see other projects get under way. It will bring another string to the Western Australian minerals sector."

    Lynas Corporation executive vice-president Matthew James said a 5 per cent drop in exports next year was likely and would be significant.

    "The (market outside) China is 60,000 tonnes, and with only 28-29,000 tonnes of quota for the year, the non-China market is going to struggle to find the additional material it requires," Dr James said.

    "From our perspective, it's obviously very positive that the market's going to be tight outside China. The price situation should be favourable." Lynas's share price was up 10 per cent yesterday to $1.975.

    Rare earths industry consultant Dudley Kingsnorth said 2010 was the first year demand for rare earths outside China was higher than the combined total of Chinese exports and production elsewhere.

    He said that situation was unlikely to change until 2013-14 when both the Mount Weld project and the Mountain Pass mine in California come on line, boosting production outside of China tenfold up to 45,000 tonnes.

    But, Mr Kingsnorth said, developing rare-earth projects was very slow and it was unlikely other mines could be brought on line quickly.

    "There are opportunities but people are going to have to have a longer-term horizon," he said. "There's the possibility of the Alkane (Resources) project in Dubbo, in NSW. But there aren't any other projects coming on stream before 2015-16."

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    • "Personally, I couldn't care less about Lynas long-term planning"

      If demand is there companies like Lynas could be
      around a long time and one of the bellwethers of the REE industry


      Good Luck

    • Personally, I couldn't care less about Lynas long-term planning. I am only interested in holding this stock into 2012 and then will move on to other investments if it looks like too much competition is around the corner. I try not to fall in love with stocks and hope for a long-term marriage--odds are against such relationships working out in this age! LOL Realize that others do seek out long-term relations and also wish them well.

    • "agree-I would like to hear Lynas's long term plan, though. What happens in a few years when REE's are not the driver in world mining".

      Could take from 15 to 30 years for that to happen IMO, but what I would like to get early word on is company's that are at this moment doing
      R and D, on alternative forms of materials that will, eliminate, and or replace the current functions of REE's, to some percentage.

    • I now only own LYSCF and ALKEF--had to just sell all my ARAFF as ree miners got to be too big a percentage after all this recent rises--I love to have to do that! I would not even consider owning any of the ree miners that will not be in production by 2013 as after that I think there will be a global oversupply--believe world ree investors will realize that once things settle down and will pay much more for these early producers. Re. Stans,I have checked them out and passed. Being in Russia, even though organized through the Canadian Embassy there in-country, is hyper-problematic for me. That country is SO CORRUPT than anything can and probably will happen with their mafia capitalism. Just as with China, I don't gamble with Russian-based companies. I love the stability and rule-of-law in safe Australia when it comes to spending my money!

    • Notice that Alkane (AKLEF) also is mentioned at the end or article--in my book the only two essential ree miners to own are LYSCF for right now and for LREE and ALKEF for HREE and for just a little bit later. Lynas has been getting some really good PR lately and that is just starting for Alkane--best time to buy, IMO. Case closed!

    • The Chinese dominance of the market has always concerned other users of rare earth, and now their restriction of exports will give a boost to the Lynas Mount Weld project in Western Australia, which is very close to achieving production," Mr Barnett said.

0.043+0.003(+7.50%)Oct 21 2:20 PMEDT