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Lynas Corporation Limited Message Board

  • looihw88 looihw88 May 16, 2013 2:25 AM Flag

    FAIR PRICE FOR LYNAS SHARES

    *
    *
    QUARTERLY REPORT (from Lynas)

    FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 31 MARCH 2013

    RARE EARTHS PRICES

    Compared with the prior quarter, the average Mount Weld “basket price” decreased by 13% during Q1 2013 to US$37.22/kg on a China FOB basis.

    * Basket Selling Price = US37.22

    * Confirmation of $14-15 base cost (COP) and that at current RE prices profitable.

    * Base cost is in high teens for Phase 1 only.

    COMMENT:

    Lynas Phase 1 and 2 = 22,000 tonnes/yr

    Cost of Production (COP) = $15/kg or $15,000/tonne

    Average Basket Price = $35/kg or $35,000/tonne

    Profit per tonne = $20,000

    Profit for 22,000 tonnes = $440,000,000/yr

    No. of Shares = 1.96 billion

    Earning per share per yr = $0.224

    PE = 10

    THEREFORE SHARE PRICE (SP) = $2.24

    by probably next year !

    *
    Dr Looi

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • These pumpers make up false numbers in order to suck in some Lemmings before the next CR which is in preparation already. This stock has nowhere to go but down. They cut production targets just like MCP because their production costs are too high.

      Now they are looking for idiots that still hold or even buy this stock. It used to be a fine deposit. The company has ruined it and Lynas will - please feel free to mark my words - NEVER write a profit before 2020.

      Massive dilution and a hefty REVERSE SPLIT.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • You have copied and pasted this very post in almost every news and investment feed I know of. You even have dumped it at least 6 times on the Lynas Facebook Page. This tells me you are a pumper, and everyone should know about you.

      • 1 Reply to bigjay3301
      • Quote bigjay3301•May 24, 2013:

        "You have copied and pasted this very post in almost every news and investment feed I know of. You even have dumped it at least 6 times on the Lynas Facebook Page. This tells me you are a pumper, and everyone should know about you." Unquote

        COMMENT:

        BIGJAY3301 IS VERY TYPICAL OF A CRAFTY DOWNRAMPER WITH OBVIOUS ULTERIOR MOTIVES WHO IS BANKRUPT OF IDEAS AND IS NOT INTELLIGENT ENOUGH TO ARGUE ON THE TRUTH AND AVAILABLE FACTS AND AS A RESULT JUST RESORT TO LOW DOWN PERSONAL ATTACKS !

        Dr HW Looi

    • Thanks for UR calculations, I wonder what are the estimations of TOTAL SUPPLY and TOTAL DEMAND
      by the end of next year ? any idea please ?

    • *
      FAIR VALUE FOR LYNAS SHARE

      ♥ ♥ :) ;) ♥ :)

      Lynas Phase 1 and 2 = 22,000 tonnes/yr

      Cost of Production (COP) = $15/kg or $15,000/tonne

      Average Basket Price = $35/kg or $35,000/tonne

      Profit per tonne = $20,000

      Profit for 22,000 tonnes = $440,000,000/yr

      No. of Shares = 1.96 billion

      Earning per share per yr = $0.224

      PE = 10

      THEREFORE SHARE PRICE (SP) = $2.24

      by probably next year !

      ♥ :) ;) ♥ :) ;)

      A DIFFERENT WAY OF CALCULATING LYNAS SHARE VALUE

      # Total REE Deposit of Mount Weld including HREE from

      Duncan deposit: = 1,400,000 tonnes

      Average basket price per tonne = $35,000

      Gross Value of 1.4 million tonnes = $49,000,000,000

      Net Value of 1.4 million tonnes at $20/kg = $28 Billion

      THEREFORE EACH LYNAS SHARE IS BACKED BY (28Billion/1.96Billion)

      $14 WORTH OF RARE EARH ELEMENTS AFTER

      DEDUCTING THE COP ! ! !

      ♥ :) ;) ♥ :)

      Sentiment: Hold

    • You are off base. First I suggest you go to Lynas home page and read what Lynas will be producing here is out put of final phase of the lamp from Lynas.

      Product Finishing
      In the final stage of the process, the Rare Earths elements are precipitated as carbonates,
      hydroxides or oxalates. Some are calcined to therespective oxides.
      Finished products
      The LAMP produces thefollowing finished products:
      »»Lanthanum-CeriumCarbonate
      »»Lanthanum Carbonate
      »»Cerium Carbonate
      »»Samarium Europium
      Gadolinium (SEG) + Heavy
      Rare Earths (HRE) Carbonate
      »»Neodymium, Praseodymium
      (Didymium) OxideSynt hetic Mineral

      Only La, Ce, La and Ce blend and Didyume carbonates will be sold. They cannot separate any of the NE from Pr so this will be sold as didyume which sells for about 25% less than Ne and Pr. They will sell almost no oxides what they will sell is carbonate which sells for allot less. They cannot separate out very much La and Ce and some of this will be sold as a blend. Take all this and go to metals pages and you will come up with a basket price somewhere in high teens. Since they do not give percentages it is hard to know for sure.

      Next they only have a TOL they need a POL to get to even 11 Ktons.
      Last prices are falling fast and if they and MCP both come on line this year the price for La Ce Ne and Pr. Fall a lot more. MCPs production is already driving down these prices more than the rest of the REEs.

      Most of mining and refining industry is selling for a PE of 6 or 7/1 why did you use 10/1.

      Your math looks good to the dreamers but your lack of understanding of what Lynas will actually produce and sell and what is happing in those markets makes your math pure fiction.

      • 2 Replies to contraryj
      • Quote contraryj: " You are off base. First I suggest you go to Lynas home page and read what Lynas will be producing here is out put of final phase of the lamp from Lynas." Unquote.

        COMMENT:

        The data comes from the CEO of Lynas.

        Is "contrarj" trying to imply that the CEO of Lynas does not know what the COP is and how much he is selling the REE for?

        QUARTERLY REPORT (from Lynas)

        FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 31 MARCH 2013

        RARE EARTHS PRICES

        Compared with the prior quarter, the average Mount Weld “basket price” decreased by 13% during Q1 2013 to US$37.22/kg on a China FOB basis.

        * Basket Selling Price = US37.22

        * Confirmation of $14-15 base cost (COP)

        and that at current RE prices profitable,

        (CEO of Lynas, Eric Noyrex, indicated that initial steady state COP would be $13 or 14/kg but he hoped to get it down close to $10/kg over time.)

        * Base cost is in high teens for Phase 1 only.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • I will tell you what is pure fiction: "Results are Friday I predict that Lynas will set a new low below 0.45 before May 19th." -CJ

        Remember your "predictions" post?

        PPS going to $2 next year certainly isn't for dreamers, it's likely.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Maybe this year. Lots of good news coming soon. Bad is over. Never will be a better time to buy!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • *
      CEO of Lynas, Eric Noyrex, indicated that initial steady state COP would be $13 or 14/kg but he hoped to get it down close to $10/kg over time.

      RARE EARTHS PRICES

      Compared with the prior quarter, the average Mount Weld “basket price” decreased by 13% during Q1 2013 to US$37.22/kg on a China FOB basis.

 
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