OSK (Friday's closing price - 38.35)
OSK has been on a major run since March when the stock got down to the 4.74 level. The stock has shown close to a 1000% profit during this time. Nonetheless, a couple of weeks ago the stock got up to a strong level of resistance from Apr-Jun of 2008 at the $40 level and has begun to back off. Having closed at 39.69 2 weeks ago and now having had 2 weekly closes below that level means the resistance at $40 has been tested successfully.
For the past 3 weeks the stock has been trading slightly above the 200-week MA but if the indexes are heading lower it seems unlikely OSK will be able to keep itself above that level any further. Any red close this coming Friday will mean the stock has failed to follow through on the breakout.
On a weekly closing basis, resistance is strong between 39.69 and 40.41. Above that level there is no resistance of consequence until the $50 level is reached. On a daily closing basis, resistance is decent at 39.08, stronger at 39.87, and very strong at 40.25. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 35.37 and then nothing of consequence until the most recent low close of consequence at 31.26. On a daily closing basis, support is minor to decent at 37.48 and then nothing until the 50-day MA is reached currently down at 34.20. Strong support is found at the 100-day MA currently at 31.20.
On the daily chart, OSK has already tested the 40.25 daily closing high successfully on 2 occasions with closes at 39.87 and 39.08. No sell signal has yet been given, as a close below the 37.48 level is needed for that to happen. Nonetheless, with the probabilities favoring the indexes heading lower, the 2 successful retests of the high suggests that now is a good time to short the stock.
In looking at the downside, OSK does show decent support from 16 months ago at the $35 level. Nonetheless, on a recent basis, there is very little support on the daily chart until the 20-week and 100-day MA is reached, currently both at 31.20.
Sales of OSK between 38.60 and 38.99 and using a stop loss at 39.57 and having an objective of 34.84 will offer a risk/reward ratio of 4-1.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest probability).
My name is Tony and I am a chartist. I have been trading for close to 30 years. In the 80's I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter, and Pru-Bache.
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I covered my shorts in OSK today at 39.51. Loss on the trade of $51 per 100 shares plus commissions.
The stock has maintained itself above the 200-week MA (currently at 38.00) and made a new 12-month high this week. The $40 resistance has held so it isn't as if I think the stock is heading higher, but with the indexes making new 14-month highs today and the stock having accomplished a bit more than I expected on the chart, I decided to get out at my original stop loss point at 39.57.
I will re-evaluate the chart today after the indexes close.
While I do look at the charts for some of my evaluations I also use common sense. In this case Obama will announce tonight the addition of 30,000 troops, this will cause Osk to move up two points tomorow. Second the on hold contract will be awarded to Osk in the next week. This is good for 3 billion over the next five years. This will move the stock up another ten to 20 points by the end of January. Thirdly lets not forget the good earnings report coming in late Jan as well. If you are shorting at 39 I would advise you to take your losses now , as far as Im concerned I will enjoy the ride to 60. Merry Christmas from Wisconsin
AMAN you are on it big time I am with you all the way, this Co was in the sixtys before jlg what will it be once jlg is paid off in 2 years ???
I call it KA CHING,,,,,, KA CHING FOR US I cant wait,,, this war thing will it include other countrys?? if so are they going to walk??? I dont think so
Stop loss has been hit but I am still in the trade. Generally speaking all my stop losses are mental for the first 15 minutes (in case the traders are going for stops). Nonetheless, when there are several resistance levels above, I will generally re-evaluate the stock after the stop loss is hit to determine if the stock is heading higher or not.
In the case of OSK, there is strong resistance, on a daily closing basis, at 39.87 and 40.25 so my stop loss was not at a critical level. I will watch the stock trade and likely keep the short unless it is going to close above $40.
I also watch the indexes and depending on what they are doing, I will also make determinations. The DOW has strong intra-day resistance at 10374. In addition, the index has gone up to 10364 on Friday late in the day and today to 10362. If those levels hold up, the index is not heading higher. A lower DOW will push OSK down as well.
For now I am still short and watching closely.
You paint an interesting picture, luckyone.
Not that I'm trying to pick holes in your story but, I'm a 71 yrsold (master) sales- man, myself. Sounds like I'm in a very similar situation to the one you described.
Have never heard about the "never offer any thing at an even price" rule. In fact, I was taught that "price was irrelevant", in a selling situation. As, it's not the price that makes the sale, but emotion.
You have an interesting approach, usin yhoo as an advertising medium.
I would be interested in knowing why: you price you two offers as "27.95" (not 30) and 4.95 (not 5), would you kindly explain the five cents short of a round number. I know that many other sellers conform to this practice and I've never understood the reasoning behind it.
Do you see it as "a sales motivator" or are you just following the lead of other, larger, sales orgs?
I am an old sales man that was taught never to offer anything at an even price. It is a sales motivor, that is all.
As far as using Yahoo as a sales tool, this site offer an area where investors are found and these message boards are free. I am not doing this so much as a business but simply to add to my retiment income while doing something I like and do for myself anyhow.
It is more of a hobby that benefits everyone involved, than a business. I already live off of my trading account as well as my retirement income. I am 64 years old.