tough one to call... I can make a case either way.
First, the dilution is already done since the shares are issued. So, in theory, no dilution will occur. However, the psychological aspect is the part bothering me, and the method they might employ to cash in the shares.
Let me say, I think the options have it pinned at 4. I almost bought in this morning and sold the 4 calls for a quick 4% gain into Friday, but backed off since I have some other things to do that will keep me away from my desk, and I didn't want to own more of it if it tanked.
So back to the story, If everyone worries they will DUMP the shares, the stock will tank below 4 appreciably (my fear).
also, same thing if they decide to DUMP large blocks into the market.
However, even though the USG needs the money, I think cooler heads [should] will prevail and they'll bleed off the shares at a slower absorbant pace possibly causing the stock to stagnate for a while at this level.
The other wildcards, pandit announces a share buyback in lieu of a Div. pandit announces a share buyback DIRECT to the government. pandit announce a div.
If any one of those things happen (and more), you'll see a $5 stock in a hurry. I think my second wildcard is the ringer. It's anti-dilution and takes the USG out!