"The Spanish flu which killed millions only had a couple percent mortality rate," he says. "If this virus mutates to be transmissible from human-to-human it will be a major issue. You have the perfect storm of pandemic flu virus in that it's highly pathogenic and could potentially be spread easily."
This is just the start. The virus is here to stay. It may not spread easly right now but we all know that the virus will evolve. It would be best for NVAX is the virus did not take off to rapidly. Therefore the larger manufactures will not be called to action so quickly. Plus they are all in seasonal production. The CDC and BARDA can work on vaccine with newer technologies, like NVS and NVAX. Both stage 1 h5n1 trials are about complete. I would think the stage two is going to involve two trials, one with the h5 and one with the new h7. They know the dose and adjuvant from the larger stage one. There is enough trial data for approval but a larger stage two to prove lot consistancy is recommended by HHS for fast track approval. If the plant is up to commercial scale this summer then it may be perfect timing.
When we're told they are working on the vaccine, who knows.
In the mean time I would not be supirsed to see a deal with China coming. Doses to be made from CPL. We'll see if Rip is earning his keep. So far the guy has done very little to maximize shareholder value.