There are numerous stories about the possible merger between Sprint and T-Mobile. Most of these stories
reflect the view that a merger is unlikely to happen. This is the same view, as has been reported, that the FCC and DOJ have also taken. More recently the CEO of Deutsche Telekom (the parent company of T-Mobile) has reportedly stated that he believes a merger in the short term is unlikely. (This news "tanked" S last week.) At this point, all we know is that T-Mobile has been in talks with Sprint about a possible merger. Last December, when news of these talks was made public, S spiked above $11. Since all the negative stories have appeared, S has fallen to the mid $7 range, back to above $9.30, and now $8.63. (after the Deutsche Telekom CEO story last week) I still believe (strongly) that a merger makes sense between Sprint and T-Mobile. The combined company would not be quite as large as either Verizon or AT&T, and could compete with the "big 2" on a more equal footing. It sure makes a lot more sense than a merger between Comcast and Time-Warner. (which has been announced) Two companies that are, by far, number one and two in the cable industry.
I believe there will be an announcement that Sprint and T-Mobile have agreed to a merger. (It makes sense on so many levels.) It will take many months for the DOJ and the FCC to decide whether or not to approve. (of the merger) One thing is certain, if a merger announcement is made, it will be a very good thing for S !!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
As each day goes by, I believe more and more that Sprint will make an offer for T-Mobile. If and when that happens, S is likely to go much higher and it should happen almost immediately....For now, I (we) just sit and wait.....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Only way this deal gets done in My opinion is if T-Mobile is in control of the combined company. Its the only way I see the FCC and DOJ believing composition will continue. I Personally have little faith in Dan as CEO of the combined company. In My eyes Sprint has been floundering since buying Nextel. Its taking years but the ship is coming back upright. John turned T-Mobile around in 12 months. I'm a Sprint subscriber and have been from the beginning. I still would rather have John run the combined company. In my mind, out of the two CEO's he is the most logical choice
What will happen next? Son is doing interviews stating that he would like to buy T-Mobile. There are now new stories stating that a merger, if approved, would be a "logistics nightmare" and remain "financially troubled". I would like to a story, just one story, stating that a merger between Sprint and T-Mobile would be a good thing.......
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What a foolish needy idiot. Play those options and lament, prayer and hand wring over your merger.
Myself, I await the realization of the Son vision in about another 2 to 3 quarters. Keep up your neediness BB
As mentioned before - how good a deal may work out depends on several factors. Mr. Son is pursuing the core factor: that combining companies will result in substantial cost savings and critical mass to pursue network and market development. I believe that Mr. Son/Softbank has proven that they can compete very effectively in both the harnessing of technology and development of markets. Although most of the network experience is isolated to Japan, despite what the recent Forbes article had to say, Softbank is regarded as a world leader in network, device and market innovations as well as price. However, just because Son can make it work does not change the fact that this is a 3-5 year proposition. In some ways acquisition of T-Mobile would complicate building of networks (more bands and systems to consolidate), devices (ditto), and operations (amalgamating two large operations is hardly ever easy). And this would add time to some things because of the long duration of the regulatory process. However, Son would likely pursue a strategy of working towards network and device harmony prior to consummation of the deal because that can be something that works to the advantage of the two smaller operators as they try to compete more effectively with Verizon and AT&T regardless of whether ti happens or not.
One thing to consider: It will become likely that Sprint, T-Mobile and new entrant/symbiotic TV/BB operator DISH will benefit from working together whether through acquisitions, joint venture holding or 3rd party affiliation companies, or other mutual development relationships. In the past this type of collaboration has not worked well in the USA but has in some Scandinavian countries, parts of India and Asia. Alternatives to acquisitions is usually done out of capital and market necessity.. as would be more the case if the T-Mo deal does not move forward. The golden ring in this merry go round is taking share from Verizon and AT&T, not blood letting among the 3
There are more and more negative stories about a possible merger between Sprint and T-Mobile. It is almost as if the writers work for AT&T and Verizon. The writers may not work for them, but I'll bet AT&T and Verizon are very pleased with each and every one of these stories......
Sentiment: Strong Buy
..."Since all the negative stories have appeared, S has fallen to the mid $7 range, back to above $9.30, and now $8.63. " ...since all the Realistic' stories have appeared.
The merger makes sense if the goal is to build a company that is similar in structure and outlook as Verizon and AT&T, not necessarily if the primary goal is to develop a competitive long-term industry. Masa Son faces a big challenge in convincing regulators that three competitors will be better than four. Here's why:
The mobile industry is, as often discussed, converging with other industries. Because mobile wireless is the 'media' that touches billions more people than any single other, it has become the BORG like magnet that drafts in content, applications, OS, commercial exchange and advertising. This vortex is based on a precious, limited amount of spectrum. Its precious because regulators around the world have decided to give virtually all of the useful spectrum over to licensed access use.. magnanimously (chuckle) gifting back to the public a few scraps of junk spectrum for open access most successfully used for Wi-Fi. That puts the licensed operators in control of the control center/pivot point of the 'wireless broadband revolution'.
That makes regulators very leery of letting the field narrow to three operators. They do not know exactly what the future looks like which is more the reason why they rely on past experience as industries came into existence and flourished: canal system, railroads, oil and gas, wireless telephone, steel.. all had their periods of mean consolidation to monopolistic control that concentrated power and wealth to the detriment of society. The study of the past has shown that forces are at play... yes, there are forces for consolidation that yield efficiency benefits.. and others that contort that very benefit to unyielding market and technology dominance the dampens innovation and social progress.