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US Energy Corp. Message Board

  • booleansearcher booleansearcher Mar 2, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    US Energy stock looks OVER-PRICED -- mo- mo stock

    Momentum has driven this stock higher and to me it is overpriced and hyped. You see its financial returns dismal to date and it still runs a LOSS. You see shareholder equity has DROPPED.......never a good sign. You see pumpers on this board pretending to know what they are talking about ...........never a good sign. It is my suspicion and expectation that the stock will either fall back now to say 3.45-3.63 or drop hard on the earnings release. You can evade reality but you can not evade the consequences of evading reality/ayn rand. You want some real value - earthstone - supreme industries - ricks cabaret and even my casino play of ntn buzztime who has a great arrangement with buffalo wild wings............waiting to hear on that has worked out in terms of acceptance/use in the stores........... Boolean

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    • Let's check-over your reco........................

      ESTE........................Had an Impressive Run-Up Now @ 21.55
      Market Cap.........$43MM
      Book Value..........$13.45...160% of Book Value
      Over some astounding open-gaps (Step-Changes in Valuation)
      13.42-14.50
      16.48-17.30
      18.18-18.74
      ALL Bakken ALL the time...........The most work-a-day returns in the "shale" boom with the highest CAP-EX per barrel. Their Nebraska Home-Run effort failed.
      ESTE is the best-managed of the Bakken non-ops. Insider Ownership of 27.43% is strong. PE @
      Shares outstanding is thin @ 1.73 MM.

      USEG....................Had a modest Run-Up...Now @ $4.00
      Market Cap ..... $111MM
      Book Value.....$3.97...Essentially 100% of Book Value
      A modest nearby Open Gap
      3.72-3.75
      More than half of current production is Bakken................
      Buda Lime Production set to dwarf Bakken Production in 3 Years (or less) reducing it to 1/3 or less of the production with much lower decline rates.
      Bakken CAP-EX @ $12MM/well. Buda Lime CAP-EX @ $4MM/well. For essentially the same reserves.
      Bakken Pay-out @ 1.5+ Years. Buda Lime Pay-Out @ 6 mos. or less (essentially self-funding).
      USEG has a sometimes errant but experienced management.
      USEG has hit a home run in the Buda Lime that is not reflectyed in the SP Yet (my opinion).

      By the way............booly................
      I am a Licensed & Registered Professional Petroleum Engineer.....Registered to practice in 4 States................
      I have toiled in the Petroleum Industry since 1972.........

      I am confident for Technical & Fundamental reasons that USEG (barring mistakes) is going much much higher.

      I have analyzed & traded stocks since 1992......................

      So you have several routes to take here..................

      You can Double-Up on ESTE.................it might go to 40............the risk is it might return to BV.
      You can short USEG if you think it is over-valued...........Double-Down Right Here.
      But please don't give me that mo-mo crap.............

      • 3 Replies to oilly2bed
      • oilly, just put these 2 guys on ignore ( or is it one guy with 2 ids) it seems they are trying to bait you, not worth your time or energy. For all we know they may be looking to get in useg at a lower price looking for small investors to bail......just my 2cents oilly

      • oilly2bed oilly2rise but not necessarily for a stock - I am not impressed by any of your points.......none. As for being a reg geo that is whatever - that does not make you a super investor in the oil field game my friend. sorry. What I want to see from this company is THE MONEY - SHOW ME THE MONEY. Right now they are running a negative PE and missed estimates last Q. Their price to sales is poor. There is hope it all turns around and IT COULD but I want to wait to SEE THE MONEY. You have pipe dreams and maybe the dreams become reality BUT I WANT TO SEE THE MONEY. They have drives some good cash flow so all is not bad and this could be the turn BUT SHOW ME THE MONEY. Many of the so called investors that poured into this mo-mo stock can just as easily RUN FOR HILLS if earnings disappoint AGAIN. So don't be so cocky......realize your limitations and gauge them against your expectations and think b-4 U denounce. Like I said in my first posting - this could be a good play but right now I see it as OVER-VALUED. Earthstone has much better potential so as a geologist you need to........DIG A LITTLE DEEPER. Boolean

      • Oilly, what do you think of the standardized measure of discounted cash flow as a method to value properties?

        In the last 10K report, USEG showed a standardized measured valued at $71.0 million whereas the book value of these properties was listed at $110.8 million, a 64% ratio.

        In the case of ESTE the standardized measure is valued at $31.6 million whereas the book value of these properties was listed at $27.7 million, a 114% ratio.

        In the case of KOG (whose 10-K is brand new), the standardized measure is valued at $2.783 billion whereas the book value of these properties was listed at $3.62 billion, a 77% ratio.

        Another question might be whether a discount should be applied to a company’s properties when it owns small percentage interests like 2,3,5 or 10% as opposed to having a majority interest over 50% and being the operator?

    • Interesting analogy, people pumping up the stock who do not know what they are talking about, then what does this make you???

      • 1 Reply to thymeee
      • richard_mantz@sbcglobal.net richard_mantz Mar 2, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

        It makes him fairly knowledgeable and he is trying to tell you that the stock is trading for less than one time this years sales. Sure the last few years have not been great, but clearly this company has hit it big in the BUDA. Their interest in every four wells drilled is equal to their total market value and they are debt free. Not a dry hole yet and plenty of room to drill more oil wells, enough that the operator wants to add a second rig to drill on the lease, not to mention that the last three wells paid back in 60 days. That is not pumping, that is just facts. It would be hard to imagine this stock dropping back and staying there.

 
USEG
1.77+0.06(+3.51%)Sep 29 3:59 PMEDT