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Don't respond to much but seems I've been hearing the term next quarter, and next year for 2 years now. I use to work for this company and know more than I probably should.I wonder now what I got myself into. Don't mind a challange but this is getting scary.
There is certainly room for multiple players in this market. Considering that HOLX has the best technology and trades at book value, it does appear that HOLX's stock is clearly the best bet imho, offering by far the best risk/reward comps since the risk at this point for this $200m annual sales company is miniscule and the reward (buyout anyone?) is superb. My personal bet is that HOLX will find their market niche and indeed turn this business profitable which will translate directly into a much higher stock price one year hence.
Recently a report entitled "mammography and beyond, developing technologies for the early detection of breast cancer" was authored by the institute of medicine.
the report (more like a book) is available on line.
on page 50 there is information regarding digital mammography manufactures.
ge and fuji's sytems have resolutions of 100 microns. fisher's system is 54 microns and hologic's can attain 41 micron resolution.
ge may be have so called good service and lease rates but comparing their digital technology to hologic's is like comparing an apple to an orange.
Everyone is bringing up irrelevant points. All that matters is will there be more buyers then sellers going forward, thus pushing the stock higher, or vice versa. It's clear to see that the volume in HOLX has totally dried up, the stock has no visibility or interest whatsoever. I believe this is a huge positive for the stock (I couldn't care less about the company, my only interest is the stock). Those holding the float obviously believe in the value proposition however you care to define it, be it the book, be it the tangible assets, be it the buyout possibility, be it the core businesses generating cash, be it the huge potential of digital Xray. I believe these people are holding long term, they sure have had ample opportunity to sell. Considering the women's health issue thing, I believe that HOLX will continue to receive visibility in their core businesses, bringing in new investors siting this again, as a value play however they care to define that in their eyes. The extra kicker of course is I believe HOLX will receive ongoing significant visibility from their digital unit, which again, will in turn bring a steady stream of new visibility to the company.
Net - Net: Whatever you think of HOLX the company, it sure looks to me like HOLX the stock is going higher regardless of an arguments made pro or con.
Now that's a great comparison pick - CLRS. I've been a value investor in technology for 25 years, I think I understand the HOLX value proposition as it relates to Clarus. Let's see now: CLRS is planning on a loss of 95c for Q1, 76c for Q2, 35c for Q3 and 8c for Q4 for a total loss of $2.14/share or a yearly forward burn rate of $33m after Q4 (my "team" does a fine job of taking good conf call notes). For '02, it's let's cross our fingers that we get some improvement in the economy and we can sell our solutions to someone!.. in which case, let's for now say we will do our best to stop draining obscene amounts of cash in 2002. Yes, good comparison - HOLX could be profitable tomorrow if they wanted to stop their investment in DRC - but that would be pretty dumb of course, since we know their sales are doing terrific and as you point out, if the sales falter, there are players lined up as everyone knows being #2 to GE is actually a great position to be in.
If you like stocks trading at big discounts to their net assets, try CLRS which is 40% below its net cash per share.
As far as who I've talked to, it includes GE, Agilent, Thermo Electron, doctors, politicians, etc. Get the picture. In terms of how GE competes, it doesn't eat margins, it just makes customers an offer they can't refuse using a packaged solution. Ask Agilent. Oh, they left the business.
I sold all mine at $9+ but think it may be interesting again at $4 on the possiblity of a Siemens buyout.
...because over $7 of that $10 is real assets! I guess the real "why" is why would someone like lockman continue and continue and continue to actively monitor the message board of a stock that is of no interest? I don't visit boards that don't interest me, but people do visit boards of stocks they sold and "hope" they made the right decision and try their best to support that decision with negative comments -- hey, it's a natural human instinct, we understand. This stock is a no-brainer at the $5 support level - 30% under tangible assets! If you think the $200m in profitable sales has no value, you better guess again. And also, I strongly suggest you do further homework regarding DRC and HOLX sales in the digital x-ray arena. Your fixation on GE is naive as is your belief that they are willing to eat margin to gain market share and attempt to put a competitor out of business. You don't think GE is fixated on their bottom line in this business segment? Again, please do a little more homework and report back in with your findings.
I think that DRC is looking extrememly positive. The backlog has been terrific and they have some real nice partners. Plus, this industry segment is in its infancy and the future looks great -- meaning that many more investor eyeballs will be heading our way over the next year or so. But the real kicker seems to be the win/win situation that HOLX shareholders are in: if DRC fails, we are left with all profitable business units trading under net tangible book (which would turn into a higher stock price), and if DRC fairs OK or better yet, continues to be a winner, then the stock should be explosive.
article. Its the March 19th edition with a picture of your movie star Bruce Willis on the cover. The title is "BreastMen" and it talks about the problems in the digital mammography market. I'll quote one sentence....
"Many mammography dept's can't cover their costs because the reimbursement rates are so low. Some can barely afford $100K for film xray equipment, much less $400K for GE's digital machine."
GE is trying to change this by lobbying efforts. But the fact remains that businesses trying to sell to customers that can't afford equipment are ultimately bad businesses. GE can afford to finance cutomers to get better penetration and become the defacto standard. Hologic cannot. Do the math! HOLX management needs to realize this and sell to a bigger player so that they can remain a viable player in the future. IMHO of course.