Ahead of the Bell: Shire Drops Monday July 9, 9:00 am ET Shire Downgraded on Prediction of Disappointing ADHD Drug Sales
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Shire PLC slipped in premarket electronic trading Monday after a JPMorgan analyst downgraded the drug maker's stock, saying investors may be disappointed as Shire tries to get attention deficit hyperactivity patients to change drugs. Shire makes both Vyvanse and Adderall. Analyst Alistair Campbell said that Vyvanse sales will miss Wall Street expectations even if the company gets many Adderall extended release patients to switch to Vyvanse.
Campbell downgraded the stock to "Neutral" from "Overweight," as he believes half the company's value comes from Vyvanse.
"We forecast a 70 percent switch on a patient basis, but toned down by the lower average daily consumption with Vyvanse," he said. He forecasts $864 million in Vyvanse revenue in 2010.
The analyst also said Shire's strong earnings growth is priced into the stock, which reached an all-time high of $76.07 Friday.
Vyvanse has been approved for ADHD in children, and is in testing for adult ADHD. Shire believes Vyvanse is less likely to be abused than other ADHD drugs because it is effective only if digested, and cannot be smoked or snorted. The drug's patent expires in 2024, while generic versions of Adderall can be sold in April 2009.
Shire shares lost 27 cents to $75.43 premarket. The stock closed at $75.70 Friday.
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What a Bull Shit post! "We forecast a 70 percent switch on a patient basis, but toned down by the lower average daily consumption with Vyvanse," he said. He forecasts $864 million in Vyvanse revenue in 2010. What exactly is lower average daily consumption. Can you come up with that number after being on the market for a week? The doctors that I call on are fired up about vyvanse. Summer time conversions are always hard to get because most kids don't go back over the summer... Rx's are mailed. When back to school hits, Vyvanse with blow it out! I'll even bet my bonus on it and I'm expecting a nice one!