mornin jad, brkb, the stock, the bid when buffett passes and your concerns,
++ I simply do NOT want to be caught holding this stock the day WEB dies, so for me, it will never be more than a rather dangerous, short term trade. ++
jad, as you know buffett over time has made every shareholder friendly move I suggested in 2006 except one, a 1 % div yield. He still doesn't understand the yield concept and how the div would affect supply and demand. since he is very content to sell off his life's work at 1.4 xs book he has no reason to make further moves to, goose , the stock, period. BUT, what happens if the day he passes the envelope contains two suggestions. IF hc refuses the job offer, my second pick is Mrx, he said its a man, AND, brkb should initiate a 1.5 % div yield and raise the buyback limit to 1.3 xs book. would brkb rise or fall on the news of his passing ? it's that simple bro, relax, he may show great wisdom when he passes OR the BODs may act shortly after he goes. REMEMBER, once the foundations were forced to sell HIS STOCK near book in sept 2011, he quickly understood the concept that you can't sell stock at IV net worth, the BID matters !! I do miss those brkoholics who use to preach IV net worth in brkville, those were the days ! have a grand day bud.
hc, I target buys at ~30 times the current annualized dividend or less. Here's: what I currently own: VPU, T, CVX, KO, INTC, MCD, and VZ. T and VZ are special cases, their real growth rates are close to zero, so they naturally, and justifiably, trade around 20X. I'm looking to make one last new buy and an addition to bring my cash position down to 30% (to fund six year's worth of distributions, I don't want to sell equities at a loss). For obvious reasons, I'm not considering BRK at any price. I feel safer with companies that trade at reasonable multiples of something that is real (the dividend) and have paid & raised it annually for many, many years.
Once upon a time, I very much admired Bill Hewlett (the engineer's engineer), his business partner David Packard, and the company they built, but it pretty much lost its way shortly after they were gone. I thought John Young was good, Lew Platt seemed like a nice guy and tried hard, but everyone after that pretty much just drove hp into further into the ground, in my opinion. I have no interest in the company or its products today. I expect BRK to follow a similar pattern after WEB leaves.
Thumbs up. Especially for the other note on JSDA. Entry point and NET basis, risk tolerance, and fluidity matter about 17X whatever rats' dropping are bandied about by either a WB or a Jordan Belfort are pumping out the smoke machine.
Won't take much of an increase in interest rates to send all those pimped by PIMCO into the dumpster, creating a rally in the types of stocks you are holding as the $ chase %.
jad, I hope you aren't falling into the , if it offers a nice yield it must be safe, trap. 2008 wasn't that long ago bro. What if the 10 year goes to 3.5 % plus before the 2016 election ? What has to happen to punish the most retail investors , the high yielders have to get punished, no ? Why cant that group trade down to 12-15, xs or lower? imo, you over appreciate divs and greatly under appreciate buybacks. one of buffets biggest mistakes was not buying brk in size in the 70s and 80s. good luck with your plan, but for the most part, retail that is buying thinks they are buying, LOW RISK, yielders, that HAS to blow up, HAS to, that's just the way it is bud. High yielders are going to lose 3-4 years income with a sell off, its just a matter of when not if. we'll see.
If you had bought JSDA (Jones Soda) on 4/16/2002 at $0.48 and sold it five years later on 4/16/2007 at $31.54, you would have pulled an annualized total return of 130%.
Here's another one that is nearer and dearer to my heart (I have pretensions of being an amateur automobile historian). Ettore Bugatti died in 1947 leaving the company he founded in 1909 in the hands of his 25 year old son (from his first marriage) and his second (27 year old) wife. By 1963 the company was gone.