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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

  • ninemonthpanic ninemonthpanic Sep 26, 1999 2:55 PM Flag

    Dr. Griffith Forecasts y2k Recession

    Unavoidable stock market dump lies ahead.

    http://cobweb.sfasu.edu/~rg/recess.htm

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    • Buffett own $1 million of Microsoft.

      Gates has sold or given away half his Microsoft holdings.

      Buffett controls 99.8% of all the Berkshire Hathaway acquired
      in the 60's and 70's.

    • <<Buffett doesn't care about short term
      stock moves because he is a Billionaire.
      >>

      What makes you think being a billionaire means you
      don't care about short term movements? How do you think
      he got to be a billionaire? Volatility (short term
      price fluctuations) is your
      friend.

      <<There are thousands of hard working workers depend
      their hard earned money on Buffett.>>
      And what
      does he owe you? He sacrifices on a $100k salary,
      doesn't pay himself stock options, etc, etc. He makes
      money WITH us, not from us. So who are you to act like
      a selfish spoiled brat baby? You're starting to
      piss me off!! Selfishness really gets under my
      skin....

      <<I wonder if Buffett even has one ounce of empathy
      of understanding the pain shareholders are
      enduring.>>
      The ones he really cares about don't care about short
      term movements... so he's not worried. He couldn't
      give a shit about you or me. We should be lucky to
      even be allowed to ride his coat tails.

      And
      for your information: Buffett was once asked what he
      would do if he lost all his money.... He said it
      wouldn't change his lifestyle, but he would feel much pain
      for all his partners.

      Manuel, you're selfish.
      You must think God made the freeway for you only. I
      bet you've had your fair share of road rage...

    • <<G, KO, & WWY are all having similar
      problems. This is a macro problem that I personally don't
      think any of these terrific managments teams have any
      control over on the micro level. I only hope they
      continue to spend for growth in these difficult times.
      >>

      These wonderful companies all have significant exposure
      to Asia and the rest of the world. They have
      stumbled along with the rest of Asia. It's nice to see
      them take a breather.... yeah,... buying opportunity!

    • Absolutely. The previous (bearish) post looks
      like a good contrarian sign. Counting Buffett
      out.
      I do believe, however, the circle of Berkshire
      shareholders will shrink considerably and probably already
      have. It will mean more wealth for fewer people when
      the earnings from increased revenues begin to show
      up. "Old worn out companies that have seen their
      better days." Hardly. Buffett doesn't own "cigar butts."

    • "It's good to know that Berkshire won't ever go
      bankrupt. It's also good to know that the assets alone are
      worth $40k+."

      That's about stated book. Heck
      See's alone is worth "several hundred dollars more than
      it is carried on the books"! How many companies do
      we have have with similar unbelieveable economics? A
      bunch!

      People often don't equate the appreciation in the
      portfolio of public equities with the probable SIMILAR
      appreciation in the private subs which met THE SAME Buffett
      criteria!

    • <<relax, and tune out the daily price
      fluctuations.>>

      It's good to know that Berkshire won't ever go
      bankrupt. It's also good to know that the assets alone are
      worth $40k+. I'm hoping the selling get's really
      crazy... I mean REALLY CRAZY... so that I can buy this
      baby on the cheap.

      This is the only company I
      can watch drop in price and not worry about a
      permanent loss. So what?.... it goes down. That only means
      it will go up that much faster when it recoils.


      When it swings around, it'll jump $10,000 in one day.
      Get ready for the whiplash!

    • What are you saying? Deja vu? Well, I'm spooked a bit.

    • "Immediately after arriving in New York, I began
      to sell everything I could, in anticipation of the
      break I now felt to be imminent. This was near the end
      of September. The condition of the market could be
      measured by its wild fluctuations, followed by assurances
      from every direction that all was well. But I had
      heard this lullaby before. I knew that the continuity
      of confidence was beginning to
      break."



      The quote is from Bernard Baruch, 1929.

    • This is something I really, really appreciate
      about BRK. One other company that I own had the recent
      misfortune of their insiders selling off their stock just
      weeks before some warning report. The stock went from
      35-13 in a few days. Shareholders felt like they were
      holding the bag. Buffett holds the same bag we do (his
      part of it a little bit bigger.)
      This market feels
      a little like last October's. Doom and gloom.
      People buying gold stocks this year. Berkshire dropping
      on a barely controlled plunge. I'm excited. I'm
      hoping for 1750 for the B shares! I notice today that
      for those doing arbitrage between B and A, the
      difference is down to 1.5% - a good time to sell the B's and
      buy back the A. This is the closest its been in some
      time.

    • It never ceases to amaze me how many ream Buffett for being tech averse, but ask questions which are answered on the internet :)

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