...Let's see today's news...bird flu found in domestic flock in Germany, Palestine is culling more and more birds in aneffort to control it over there, and then this item:
"LOME, April 3 (Xinhua) -- Burkina Faso has detected three casesof deadly H5N1 bird flu virus on a farm near its capital Ouagadougou, Burkinese Ministry of Animal Resources announced late Monday.
Test in the Italian lab of the World Animal Health Organization(OIE) confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the flu virus on three samples collected on a farm in Gampela, a suburb of Ouagadougou, said Tiemoko Konate, the Burkinese minister of animal resources.
According to Konate, a total of 65 samples had been collected across the country.
The Burkinese government has put the affected farm under quarantine and had all the poultry there culled, said the minister, noting that the public had been asked to report any suspected cases.
With the confirmation of the three cases, Burkina Faso becomes the fifth African country hit by H5N1 bird flu after Nigeria, Niger, Egypt and Cameroon."
...Africa...great place for it to mutate into a deadly human to human form.
...and just a bit more for those that think because the press is not reporting H5N1..
"The outbreak of the virus in Europe and Africa is traced to the discovery last spring of thousands of dead migratory birds at Qinghai Lake in remote western China. The lake is a crucial stopover for many birds that ultimately mix with others that migrate through Europe, Africa and Asia.
Webster suspects that the virus mutated as it circulated among the birds at Qinghai Lake, allowing it to infect wild birds more easily and hitch a ride with them on their long travels.
The genetic fingerprints of the Qinghai strain have shown up in Russia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.
"Each morning I sit down at the computer � there's another country, another outbreak or another human case," said Nancy J. Cox, chief of the influenza branch at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."
..it will be here soon, if not already...
The 1918 pandemic killed 40-60 million people. Death rate upon contracting the illness was 2.5%. A lot of people never contracted the disease at all or had such a mild form that it went undocumented and undiagnosed. By comparison, the death rate from paralytic poliomyelitis was ten percent among those so afflicted. 1.5 Billion seems an exaggeration as that is roughly 25% of the population of earth rather than 2.5%.
It does appear that in documented cases of H5N1, the mortality rate is very high. I suggest that there are probably a lot of human cases of the same disease that never caused serious illness. (You are claiming thousands of deaths. On what basis?)Polio offers an excellent parallel here. The people who presented cases of acute paralytic polio were but a fraction of those exposed to and in some degree infected with the virus. Going back to work by Jonas Salk on that issue, he found that over a quarter of the US population had antibodies to at least one of the viral strains.Oddly enough, not everyone exposed to HIV/AIDs develops the disease, even though they have antibodies.
I could believe 1.5 billion dead birds. 1.5 billion dead people would only be possible if the extremely high death rate observed for this strain in the human population is indicative of all the humans infected with the virus. Given the spotty nature of disease reporting world wide, I have no reason to believe that any substantial portion of the cases of human infection with H5N1 has been reported. A similar situation can be seen in HIV/AIDS in this country. We frankly don't know how many people have HIV or how many had any form of influenza last year or how many have syphilis for that matter.
What you are suggesting is the "Black Death" all over again. It could happen and that I why I have medical stocks now. I would not buy life insurance company stock at present but prefer to wait this out.
Even in the case of a pandemic, the ones to die will be mostly elderly and those with weakened immune systems. At the risk of sounding gruesome, these people will cost society capital for an extended period of time. It is the loss of people in their productive years that inflicts great economic damage. My death would not harm the economy but rather help it, as I am retired. Assets would go to younger people who are productive. I am not saying I wish to die but rather pointing out the classes of people hit by influenza and the economic impact.
Younger people, sickened by the virus would be out of the economy for the duration of their illness. There is a possibility of permanent impairment as in the case of the 1918 pandemic but that seems to have been a small fraction of the more youthful people.
All of us can be and someday will be replaced. That is a fact. The probability of death at some point is 1.00 or 100%. That this current round of a virus will kill a quarter of earth's population is not very likely. Such a thing even with the Black Death happened over a period of a few generations and was not uniformly spread.
1.5 Billion dead in a year! I don't think so. Maybe I should buy stock in crematoria? That's a thought. I'll check out some companies and get back with you. If you are right, you could make a serious profit there.
I do see Tyson whole chickens on sale at $.30 a pound at the local store and bought several, despite my distaste for the company. I don't like Tyson but will buy some poultry stock in another company in a couple of months before the upswing.
Of course, if we lose 1.5 Billion people, my crematorium stocks will have put me way ahead unless I die from the flu first. I have a fair amount to invest and will put part in crematorium stocks to hedge my bets and the rest in drug companies and buy poultry on the rebound if there is anyone left to eat a chicken.
If the pandemic hits! Those are your words, key is IF as in chance, maybe, maybe not, no one knows, etc..
Are you more interested in stock prices or the 1.5 billion that will die per your predictions?
Earlier posts said the first wave of infected birds come from Alaska to the west coast! If I were in Mesa like you, I would buy that Tamiflu!
Oh yes, Chicken Little told me yesterday the sky was falling. Thought you would want to know. PS, Tamiflu does not work for that problem, I mean pandemic! Think hard hat!