Sell this biatch for $50/shr, make everybody rich, and move on to the next challenge, dude!
Let's git'er done.
I got bills.
An interested party
Personally I think something close to this might happen within the next few months. I hope it does because I think that is the best for the drug to market scenerio. I would be happy with anything over $50 and I am prepared to hold until a buyout happens.
Quixote, not that anyone is begging for your advice, but taking some profits at $20.85 like I did is not emotional or terrible trading (one or more of the insider sellers exited around $21), as long as one keeps a substantial core position, which I did and which I have always asserted. (It's quite possible that my core position is larger than yours.) Restoring one-third of my sold shares at $22.10 A WEEK LATER after the benfit of watching the sideways price action only amounts to a minor glitch, especially since even that trade is quickly up. But we don't have any specifics on the size of your position, whether you're holding 1K shares or 15K shares. Until and unless you are up $300K, you don't need to lecture me or other not-so-terrible traders on this board about happiness and sleepful nights.
Where you look idiotic in all your criticisms of me is when you say 17 "is a likely possibility." Likely ?? Then why wouldn't someone want to sell, let's say, 12K shares at $20.85 and re-enter at $17? That's a heap of sleep -- an extra $46,200. (From $22.67, that's an extra $68,040.) Put another way, how does one buy more shares at $17 if they haven't raised cash by selling higher at $20.85 or $22.67? Unless you have unlimited resources to keep adding shares without ever selling . . . lucky you. When you state that 17 "is a likely possibility," if you have a substantial position, you are the one who should be selling a portion immediately and re-establishing those shares later. If you only have 1,000 shares, then by all means hold and add at 17.
I'm not urging anyyone to sell before the annual meeting. That will be the time to re-assess. I'm happy either way the price goes because I have freed up cash if the shares ever get significantly cheaper but I have a very solid core position and will profit nicely if the pps just keeps rising. It's called a win-win.
But there doesn't seem to be anyone on this board willing to lay down their pom-pons long enough to consider how we can trade DNDN profitably and not simply hold. FDA approval is not coming until Q1 of 2010.
What you don't seem to grasp is the fact that these people sold their shares for one reason and one reason only: They "needed" the money. No, they didn't need it to eat, but for things like buying a new mansion, liquidate debts and acquiring three or four luxury cars... in other words, to start living the life of multimillonaires that is what they have become. Would it have made sense to continue struggling on a 100K salary for another year to make an extra 20-30 million on their holdings? No question about it but these people have worked their asses out for this for years and not just them but their spouses and children want the payback NOW. tHAT THE STOCK WILL EVENTUALLY go to 50 and beyond is a foregone conclusion, well then they will have still another load of millions to dispose of even counting only with a 15% of their original positions.
Furthermore, other than the rapacious wishful thinking of some "longs" (this company has never had any REAL longs in the past, maybe now it does some, not many), nobody is considering a buy out much less as something specially desirable. Certainly not the board that has said, through Gold, many times, that they are looking to have one or several ROW partners and do the North American manufacture and distribution themselves. Like I said, the buyout is a pipe dream of speculators, not something that either the board or the real longs are contemplating as a possibility. We believe this company will be eventually worth more than 20-25 billion... on its own, in 5-7 years, so selling out for 5-7 is not something we are particularly looking for.
But if such an offer is ever put on the table and therefore considered, what makes you think that the transaction will happen? Don't you think that one and possibly many of the possible eventual partners with whom Gold and his team are discussing different possible deals on a daily basis right now -by their own admission, recently published-, would make one or more moves to get a piece of the cake too? Not necessarily a bidding war, but how about someone offering 5 billion for the company and, simultaneously, other bidding 2 billion for the rights of Provenge alone for 15 years in Europe? And another one bidding 3 billion for the rights for Asia and Australia-New Zealand? How about 1 billion for Latin America? How about 2 billion for the Middle East? These are hypothetical figures or course, but one or several are in fact MORE likely than the buy out offer mentioned... or any other for that matter. What would happen then? Would a final offer of 10 billion do the trick? I don't think so, quite frankly.
That's why I don't expect a buyout, I don't want a buyout -although I would welcome such an offer to precipitate things, of course- and I hope a buyout never occurs (If it does, of course I will sell my shares immediately).
All of this, of course, doesn't mean anything to you because your only concern is if this could revisit the 17 level that seems to be the lower side of the current (three weeks). And that's another whole lot of irrelevant beans altogether, of course.
Passports, all good points. I haven't discounted the potential of a buyout. If it happens, so be it. But you raise the issue of management having a difficult time convincing the larger shareholders to "stay the course" in the face of a buyout offer. What is the single most important thing that management can do to bolster their desire to stay independent??? Sign a very lucrative ROW partnership deal with a capable partner. This is exactly what I believe Gold & Co. are working overtime on. That is also why I believe the recent share sales by them work in our favor(if you are in the camp of favoring independence). We currently have the potential for a tug-of-war between management and the shareholders. I believe the company will, or has, received calls from interested parties. IMHO this potential conflict is very healthy for both the company and shareholders. If management doesn't want to face the possibility of losing their company, they will have to provide a very compelling argument (the only one that would have enough conviction would be a substantial ROW partnership, or an outright world-wide partnership where the sales force and excess production capability is provided). In any event, these are good problems to face.
Gary, you make rational points on management's possible long-term aims, especially if the inside sellers believe their shares will be quickly replenished. But I think you too easily dismiss the buyout potential. And the buyout could occur long before those "plenty more options granted to them over time."
A $50 buyout is only $5 billion, not inconceivable given the depth of Big Pharma's pockets. And while management may have a larger vision than $50 per share, there would be hell to pay with shareholders if such an offer were rejected in summer 2009.
Another thing that should not be overlooked: Dendreon admits in its filings that it lacks expertise in manufacturing, sales and distribution. To fully achieve the "value" of the pipeline that some envision, Big Pharma might have to supply the engine.
Of course, we're all outsiders, just speculating on what could/should happen. Good luck to all who are holding come hell or high water, but I think it is pragmatic to expect a buyout.
I think the insiders are still shell shocked from last time wallstreet manipulated the FDA, because thats exactly what went down two years ago.
selling into strength is the right thing to do, with 15% more shares to hold and ride for the long term means future financial stability, cashing out 85% of your holdings after seeing how wallstreet manipulates and extorts the FDA is a very wise move, now they have their pay day, which was earned, after all this is a recesssion here!
touts are increaseing their exposure and thats all that matters now.
somebody will be paying UP for this stock. dont bash the people who brought it this far.
Here is my take on the insider selling dillema. I believe it points directly to a long haul strategy by management. The argument that they wouldn't have sold if they knew the pps was going to $40 or $50 because of a buyout is valid. On the otherhand, if they are focused on the long run, and signing a ROW partner, they will have plenty more options granted to them over time. I believe any acceptable buyout offer in managements eye would need to be very high, and thus unlikely in the current economic environment...thus it would come as a big surprise to them. Therefore, they cashed in on their many years of heavy lifting. I can't blame them for this, as I would have done the same. If you beleive in the long term viability of this company, I look at their share sales as a potential positive. They will have to continue to perform in order to maximize their net worth. I know many here would love to see a quick sale at $50 or so. I'm more concerned about what we would lose out on if we would be bought out at this time.