With December options properly digested and the secondary offering all wrapped up, we now enter the period where some serious jostling for position will begin to take shape.
The earliest realistic timeline for approval is and always was 60 days from the time submission occurred. That puts the earliest approval at mid-to-late January.
Thats not to say thats when it will happen, but that is when it realistically could happen. As a result, we will see quite a few institutions begin to buy in to safely be in place before approval happens. There was no need to rush in before this given the impossibility of approval coming any earlier, but they won't want to take a gamble on missing an early approval on an accelerated 60 day timeline.
Should be interesting...I don't expect the share price to go crazy, but I do expect a solid move back toward $30 over the next 2 weeks.
What you say is logical, since when has the market been THAT! I continue to be amazed at the volume during this period of time. Trading in this range seems well....Don't you think most institutional buyers are in by now, except they are buying on any dips, but who is giving the dips?
Some trade up in January makes sense at anything below the magical number of $30. Then it is flat till approval.
IMHO your time frame is off. I have said this before. The FDA is very political. It you give me that then approval before late April is unlikely. An entire subset of an industry is at stake here. Chemo is a business and this puts them squarly in the cross-hairs.
The FDA will want to give the appearance of having "thoroughly" vetted all aspects of the data to satisfy a whole segment of oncology. This single fact weights heavily against early approval. As a first of its kind the government would never move before is has too.
I am not looking for any announcement before April 25th. Has the FDA every been persuaded by life and dealth before. Well maybe, but not often and not with a brand new therapy.