To reverse this death spiral regarding the PPS, we think the net growth must equate in the community of 12% or greater, quarter over quarter. The single digits just will not cut it.
If this reporting quarter continues to show single digit growth, at best DNDN can expect, and we do agree, a buy out in the 7-8.50 per share will present the best option for the share holders as well as the treatment. The reality is, DNDN can not go it alone if the above does not come to fruition.
We feel anyone who has insight within the dynamics of DNDN falls within the realm of agreement. By the end of 2012 one of the two aforementioned must and to a high degree of probability will happen. Can someone assist us to get us off this soap box?
one of my relatives was sued 2 years ago by a patient that was unhappy with the outcome of treatment. this case, as most cases, are settled between insurance and lawyers. the patient received $67k after lawyers took their share. many lawsuits are ridiculous but cost even more to go to court and let a bunch of idiot jurors try to unnderstand.
there was no malpractice involved, at least none that involved my relative. how do i know? cause he wasn't a doctor of the patient, never met the patient, and was not even on-duty when the patient was admitted to the hospital. he was on a hunting vacation in Colorado. didn't matter, cause patients sue everyone...the more the merrier.
$10 bucks? seems like we were just at $12 per sh yesterday......
i honestly thought there was no way we would trade below $7.60, ever...
lol at myself, DNDN, and at the market in general. this game sure can make one humble. how a stock can trade so far away from value (up or down) is a perfect example of how inefficient the markets can become.. throw out all the formulas cause they cannot account for market (human) behavior/perception...
I recently posted calculations that demonstrate MDVN is currently worth $60 by itself and the rest can be attributed to belief that Zytiga and Provenge will both be made obsolete in time. the $60 figure already included giving half to their partner. so if you want to be very conservative, then $60 for MDVN assumes nothing beyond post-chemo.
You got a couple of things right, Peso. The part about "forget about JNJ" because I agree, Zytiga is going nowhere. And the part about the "perception is that MDV3100 is closing the gap," although I wouldn't use the word "overwhelming" before perception. The parts you got wrong, IMO, is that MDVN is hopelessly overpriced in the high $80s when it is probably two years away from approval and market. Plus it shares everything with Astrella.
To suggest that DNDN has 60 days before Armageddon is another overreach on your part.
you'd better pray for a DNDN rally soon because JNJ could file their NDA anytime and MDVN should reveive a reply from FDA within the next 60-days giving them priority review status. whatever you think wchuck will say, the market will view these events as negative for DNDN. forget about JNJ, the overwhelming perception is that MDV3100 is closing the gap and DNDN isn't making much progress with it's 6% growth so with MDVN's EAP there could be direct competition sooner than expected. tick tock
dndn guy spoke at Goldmen Saks conf June 5th.
He said it takes 4 to 6 successful experiences before one is comfortable with using any new process (after which, in the case of Provenge, sales can more steeply rise). Re Provenge: he said in August 2011, the new insurance claim process began. He said most bigger accounts/practices are now on their 3rd patient experience.
That being said, then extrapolating, seems to me if 3 patients took from Aug '11 to now, then that 4th patient success should start concluding in late August 2012. IF SO, this means
**** 2nd qtr '12 sales will be again at the low single digit increase pace.
**** 3rd qtr sales will be half and half.
**** Therefore, 4th qtr '12 will be 1st opportunity for sales to be at an accelerate pace.
> takes 4 to 6 successful experiences before one is comfortable with using any new process (after which, in the case of Provenge, sales can more steeply rise).
that's a load of BS. it's not the infusion "process" or reimbursements anymore. sounds more like the doctors are skeptical about the benefits to patients and want to see more patients showing real progress they can measure, since the doctors could be sued if patients (especially ones that had to pay 20% of costs that medicare doesn't) feel that provenge didn't help them.