I like the next 5-30 day outlook. It looks like shorts are beginning to cover, with less interest. EU Decision should come next week, or in 4 weeks. Potential "Chicago effect" that occurs next week. If EU also has approval next week, it could be the "the perfect storm" for DNDN with a rise in PPS. 3.90 has held pretty much since earnings. 2013 has limited potential downside given cash on hand, with multiple potential up side. More "articles" are mentioning immune therapy as "next big thing" in pharma.. If a few positive signs begin to show in DNDN, (More patients which was eluded to in April, partnership(s), etc) we could have an interesting ride over the next 30 days, and even more interesting long term. All Opinion.. What we all should know, 1) EU Decision has widely been communicated as "expected early summer 2013" - This time frame is now up on us. 2) Convention in Chicago is next week - with a history of biotechs increasing in price. 3) More "general articles" being written on immune therapy as next big move which brings in investors/speculators. 4) DNDN has enough cash on hand to operate 1-2 years without increasing sales 5) Other drugs are in pipeline 6) Given "general articles" Bigger players may decide to accelerate their company's advances in this space is easier and less costly to buy DNDN BEFORE they turn the corner and become a self sustaining org... A short bet, in my opinion is riskier than $3.90 a share. I like the long odds much better both in the immediate future and longer term. but again, it's all just opinion.. Live by the 2 rules of investing. 1) Do your investing homework. If you don't do your own and form your own decision, you are gambling. 2) Never invest more than you can lose.
1) EU Decision has widely been communicated as "expected early summer 2013" - This time frame is now up on us. "
There is no way they can be approved in the EU before late this year. And once that happens they have to negotiate the country by country reimbursements, and figure how to manufacture at a profit.
"2) Convention in Chicago is next week - with a history of biotechs increasing in price. "
meh, DNDN has nothing substantial to move the stock.
"3) More "general articles" being written on immune therapy as next big move which brings in investors/speculators. "
Yes, there is more competition.
"4) DNDN has enough cash on hand to operate 1-2 years without increasing sales "
Which now puts them on a death clock. Unlike a startuo bio (that can easily sell stock), DNDN must swim in the real ocean.
"5) Other drugs are in pipeline "
Huh? Have they advanced anything in the last 4 years?
"6) Given "general articles" Bigger players may decide to accelerate their company's advances in this space is easier and less costly to buy DNDN BEFORE they turn the corner and become a self sustaining org."
Why would they push into the PC space, where competition is growing like kudzu? A PC only company is dead.
Your EU timeline is outdated. You've missed the last 2 Dendreon conference calls apparently. EU delays and timeline for EMA final decision is second half 2013. They have 2 committees to get through yet and the company informed they can not be back o back due to EMA procedural reasons (need review time in between). The Summer Street information that drove the stock to $7 is now outdated (unfortunately). Their prediction of immiment EU approval in January 2013 turned out o be wreckless to broadcast (unless you believe in consoiracy theories).