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Dendreon Anonim Ortaklik Message Board

  • llabtechtwo llabtechtwo Aug 9, 2013 5:36 PM Flag

    OVEREACTION

    Will be profitable upon European approval....decent quarter was hoping for more but this is a huge turnaround candidate in my opinion tho it is time for john Johnson to go!!

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    • hope you are really not that stupid?

      there will be no profits from EU operations. you think that they can miraculously find a CMO that already has spent many millions to establish a highly custom "at the hood" automation plant that can get free antigen with skilled minimum wage / no benefit workers in EU? the COGs for EU will mirror the COGs in U.S., so you can bet they will never achieve a profit.

      as for being a turnaround candidate, you may not be aware of the $586M in bond debt (some due in 2014) which the company may be forced to repay in full -if- a material event (such as a massive share issue) occurs...according to the actual bondholder agreement. more likely, the company will issue share to raise capital (making idiot long shares worth less than a third what they are today), repay the 2014 notes in full, make a substantial pre-payment on the 2016 notes while also kicking up the interest rate and also changing the conversion price on the attached warrants. this is what the current shareholders don't understand.... all those warrants will be repriced from $50 down to $1-2 and the new stock offering (to raise capital) will also be well under $3.

      the risk of bankruptcy is much higher than a year ago and it will be extremely hard to find anyone to buy more DNDN notes. they need around $400M fresh capital by early 2014 and assuming no fees (for sake of example), they would need to issue 200M additional shares at $2. throw in more shares for the overallotments and factor in warrant repricing... this stock will trade under $2 IMO and probably closer to $1 as the institutions dump everything for tax-loss selling.

      fire Johnson and the stock drops 20% instantly on even more uncertainty. LOL

    • extreme over reaction !! 15% down was expected. 26% is over reaction and makes this Oversold!

      Sentiment: Buy