Maybe someone will correct me if I am wrong here, but I think the underlying assumption that everyone is making on the sales figures for the quarter are that the sales are a direct reflection of the number of patients getting the drug. Drugs are generally shipped to a distributor that in turn sends this drug out to pharmacies. This distributor is the buyer of the drug from Roche, not directly from the patient. So the distributors would be the buyers in this first quarter of sales, and they would have ordered based on their forecasted demand. Since the drug was approved well ahead of the PDUFA date I'm guessing they were also caught by surprise. So sales for this first quarter may not even be reported at all in this call if it is just filling the channels with inventory. What you really want to hear is what the prescription rates are looking like. That would be the numbers that we could build some estimates off of. Hopefully some analyst on the Q&A is good enough to ask that kind of question.
There is almost no transparency at all to Zachs blatant call today with their sell, which makes me suspicious that some other positive news is coming out of the call Thursday that none of us anticipate. Bought 100 June $5 calls on the off chance that Roche buys CRIS. Hoping it does not happen, but if you were Roche you would have to be thinking about that option.
Ace who would have thought 2 days before the 1st qtr sales numbers are released for Erivedge we would be down this much. I really hoped that I would have been able to unload some of my trading shares at $5.25 or higher going into this but I guess they might turn into more of a long term hold, that is unless we get great numbers on Thursday.
I will be checking my computer tomorrow at 10:00 pm to see what Roche has to say. Being on left coast time, I won't have to lose any sleep wondering what Roche has to say since the numbers should be released before my bedtime :-). Hopefully they provide a nice surprise to those selling today. GLTA and less than 48 hours to find out how Roche did for the 7 weeks the drug was on the market. I know most are not expecting too much but my hope is they are over $25 million in sales and possibly higher.