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E-House (China) Holdings Limited Message Board

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  • ksn_44 ksn_44 Dec 4, 2009 12:01 PM Flag

    Entry Point?

    Buy the dips. Goldman is lowering to get a cheaper price for their clients. They do it all the time. It's how they make their living. It's legal if you can believe that. If you could have access to the stock purchases over the next few days they would all be Goldman clients. But you have to remember, as their CEO said, they are "doing God's work".

    I think I am going to be sick.

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    • I do not believe that goldman lowered their rating
      i think this is a false reporting of goldman.

      tao jeng

      • 1 Reply to taojeng1
      • It was in the WSJ online edition.

        But someone gave a Goldman rating last week where they had raised their price target. So something does not compute.

        November 18, 2009
        EARNINGS REVIEW
        E-House (China) Holdings Limited (EJ)
        Buy
        Above expectations: Significant volume and margin expansion
        What surprised us
        E-House reported 3Q09 results with net income up 80% qoq to US$35mn,
        driving 9M09 net profit to US$61mn, or 96% of our full-year estimate. EHouse’s
        3Q09 results came with the following surprises: (1) Stronger-thanexpected
        primary agency volume growth in 9M09, up 189% yoy,
        stemming from a higher-than-expected sales rate (80% vs. our estimate of
        70%). (2) Flat 3Q commission rate (1.40% vs. our estimate of 1.55%) due to
        the dilution effect during rapid volume growth. (3) Margin expansion
        attributable to cost efficiency improvements. 9M09 net margin at 34% was
        7ppt above our full-year estimate of 27%. The company also guided strong
        4Q09 revenue of US$103mn-US$106mn, implying full-year guidance of
        US$285mn-US$288mn, or 84%-86% yoy growth, which is 18% above our
        previous estimate. Meanwhile, E-House expects GFA 21.4mn sqm to become
        available for sale (22% above our previous estimate of GFA 17.5mn sqm)
        next year having already locked in 15mn sqm by October.
        What to do with the stock
        We revise up our 2009E-2011E non-GAAP EPS estimates by 45%/8%/1% to
        reflect stronger-than-expected volume growth and to incorporate CRIC’s
        merger with China Online Housing Technology. We keep our target price P/E
        multiple unchanged at 24X, but raise our 12-month target price by 8% to
        US$29.84 from US$27.65 based on 2010E non-GAAP EPS of US$1.24. We
        maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Key risk to our target price and
        investment view includes unexpected government policy tightening.
        E-House 3Q09 results summary
        (mn US$) 2Q09 3Q09 QoQ 9M08 9M09 YoY
        2009E
        old
        9M09 vs
        09E old
        Revenue 63 86 36% 116 182 58% 238 77%
        Primary property agency 41 5 9 44% 70 118 68% 150 79%
        Secondary property brokerage 6 6 7% 8 15 89% 21 72%
        Consulting and information (CRIC) 1 4 1 9 36% 37 43 18% 64 68%
        Net profit (GAAP) 19 35 80% 31 61 96% 64 96%
        Net margin (GAAP) (%) 30% 41% +10 ppt 27% 34% +7 ppt 27% +7 ppt
        Net profit (Non-GAAP) 21 37 74% 34 67 97% 64 106%
        Net margin (Non-GAAP) (%) 34% 43% +9 ppt 30% 37% +7 ppt 27% +10 ppt
        EPS (Non-GAAP) 0.27 0.46 72% 0.42 0.85 102% 0.80 106%
        Total GFA of new properties sold (mn sqm) 2 ,700 3 ,339 24% 2,565 7,411 189% 9,800 76%
        Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates.
        INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
        Asia Pacific Buy List
        Coverage View: Attractive
        China:
        Real Estate
        Growth
        Returns *
        Multiple
        Volatility Volatility
        Multiple
        Returns *
        Growth
        Investment Profile
        Low High
        Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th
        * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the
        investment profile measures please refer to
        the disclosure section of this document.
        E-House (China) Holdings Limited (EJ)
        Asia Pacific Property Peer Group Average
        Key data Current
        Price ($) 20.31
        12 month price target ($) 29.84
        Market cap ($ mn / US$ mn) 1,620.1 / 1,620.1
        Foreign ownership (%) --
        12/08 12/09E 12/10E 12/11E
        EPS ($) New 0.48 1.02 0.88 1.28
        EPS revision (%) 0.0 27.2 (23.5) (21.0)
        EPS growth (%) (22.6) 111.9 (13.3) 45.5
        EPS (dil) ($) New 0.48 1.02 0.88 1.28
        P/E (X) 42.3 20.0 23.0 15.8
        P/B (X) 4.1 2.1 2.0 1.7
        EV/EBITDA (X) 27.8 23.4 17.9 12.4
        Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
        ROE (%) 11.7 13.9 8.9 11.6
        Price performance chart
        0
        5
        10
        15
        20
        25
        Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Sep-09
        30
        40
        50
        60
        70
        80
        E-House (China) Holdings Limited (L) MSCI China (R)
        Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month
        Absolute 13.5 62.5 315.3
        Rel. to MSCI China (1.3) 19.5 124.3
        Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 11/17/2009 close.
        Wendy

 
EJ
6.790.00(0.00%)Aug 12 4:00 PMEDT