As yesterday's downdraft (and today's bounce) demonstrate, this issue still quite illiquid. A small amount of buying or selling can quickly move this 10%. All of the price action is noice. If Milby and Co. execute on any level within the next month or so people should take note. I also suspect that many potential partners will do a back of the napkin calculation and quickly figure that they could own both US future rights AND current EU sales for what they would consider a nominal amount. This will get very interesting.
I have significantly lowered my expectations on this one. 3 months ago I thought this would be $5 easily in 2014. Here we are, 12/6, and no Neutrolin has been shipped. So much for late Q3, early Q4 sales. At this point if someone offers to take them out for $2 share I would take gladly give up my shares at that price. I think it drastically undervalues the long term potential here, but I don't have the patience to watch this 3 man team try to run a $500M sales operation.
That is the double-edged sword here. Small staff size lowers burn rate but often causes delays. they will not be running a $500M sales operations---someone else will and they will collect royalties or be bought out entirely. Lot's of ways to win here. Be patient---this story has a happy ending.