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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • normalab1940 normalab1940 Mar 28, 2011 9:57 PM Flag

    Dangerously undervalued

    This stock is dangerously undervalued and could be a seating duck for acquisition. Their partner Novartis announced $1billion drug...$1.8B market cap does not even cover for a billion dollar peak sales in 5 years for the US and European royalties , still have $425 million in cash, no enterprise value. Not sure if any other cancer indications are built in the stock even with low chance of success. Any chance one of the partners will come acquire them, we haven't heard from LLY for sometime, actually a bidding war could be nice? Any thoughts?

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    • I posted some market size figuring a while back. INCY is only moderately undervalued based on the most likely FDA outcome. It is roughly fully valued should the FDA approve 424ib grudgingly. While sell-side analysts can go wild in some ways, they generally won't speculate on outcomes of clinical trials or potential off-label use of a drug--no help from them.

      • 1 Reply to jacosa
      • I read this, not bad but it is flawed for several reasons. No doc will prescribe 18424 for RA, because of lack of data, price and reimbursement issues. You also gives no value to the compound they licensed to LLY in RA and you give no value to other 18424 indications and other compounds even heavily discounted. There is also a value to the psoriasis and diabetes compounds. The stock appear 25 to 30 % undervalued.

    • There will be no buy-out unless and until some product is actually approved and wishful thinking or the stock price from time to time will not change that. Be patient.

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