Everyone should not be fooled by the last ditch efforts by the shorts causing the stock price to drift down. IMHO INCY will likely be acquired shortly (pun intended). If my valuation is right it should be for somewhere between 30 and 51 dollars per share. All signs point to this. i.e. major insider buying,support from major players like Blackrock, moving earnings announcement back with a press release shortly before earnings in the morning., Jakafi is a 700 million a year drug and all indications I have is that the drug is selling well, in addition, they have several other indications pending for Jakafi as well as drugs in the pipeline.
However, such a large portion of the float is held by insiders, who are already in and can't get in too close to a major announcement (like an acquisition)the stock price is languishing due to the last ditch effort of a few desperate shorts. To all the longs please, hang on as this is going to be a fun ride with this stock. I have rarely if ever seen such a confluence of positive factors on a stock. Insider buying, great drug, great earnings small outsider float and very high short interest will make this move very quickly. To the shorts, hang on too, you should think seriously about covering before earnings because once they announce a buyout price you will be SOL. IMHO, on this one, you will be looking like fools with your pants(shorts)on the ground. No offense. Just some humble advice. EOM
I think an acquisition is unlikely right now (say, until at least Fall) because of a couple of big-money unknowables. We don't know how '050 will do against RA, and that's potentially huge. We also don't know how ruxo will do against toxic cancers, which is comparably huge and could develop rapidly. As always, management has to negotiate as though success is likely on both fronts, while an acquirer can't accept that. I think a tender offer would have to go to $45-ish, which is too risky.
Investors may not appreciate the stakes in toxic cancers: people whose tumor bulk/mechanical damage burden would permit weeks or months of excellent quality of life are rendered frail, often bedridden, by the toxicity. On top of that, giving a drug for palliative purposes to people with many different kinds of cancer is a free survey to find cancers for which that drug might be disease modifying.
I'm not trying to be disagreeable or argumentative here. I actually respect your opinions and posts for the most part.
I think that you raised some important points about the follow-on pipeline candidates and further applications for Ruxo.
I would be willing to bet that all of the points which you raised will be gone over thoroughly in any discussions (if they haven't already).
However, I would venture to presume that at this point in time a "frame-work deal" is most likely in place between Incyte and whoever the suitor company is.
How can I be so sure?
Well, we know that Incyte and Baker filed for early anti-trust clearance, and we know that they were granted that clearance.
If there was a filing of ANY sort to the feds (FTC), then all parties to the proposed deal HAD to be named and at least a rudimentary description of the deal.
A synopsis of the HSR Act describes this in it's first paragraph under Pre-Merger Notification:
The Act provides that before certain mergers, tender offers or other acquisition transactions can close, both parties must file a "Notification and Report Form" with the Federal Trade Commission and the Assistant Attorney General in charge of the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice. The filing describes the proposed transaction and the parties to it."
And that's the first two sentences of the description.
I don't believe that the FTC is going to let Baker or Incyte get away with just filling in "Baker Brothers, Inc." on every line of the named parties and the description. Their not going to get around the feds; they have to present "most of the picture" to them, I'd guess.
Given what happened with AT&T / T-Mobile, I'd say that the FTC still takes this stuff seriously enough.
Based on that, I believe that "something" of an actual deal is in place.
Could it fall apart on some details easily? Sure. Why not? Many things can and do happen in business.
Whatever the arrangement is presently, I don't think that it is "hostile" like Roche / Illumina.
I'd have my doubts that Incyte and Baker would be going out and WILLINGLY file anti-trust paperwork on a "hostile" situation.
The Fall isn't that far off anyways, really. From where we are right now, it's only about 6-8 months away.
I'll be buying my kids halloween costumes and marveling how it seemed to be mid-February only yesterday. ;-)
Here is a link to the HSR Act descriptor:
Just for "yucks" look up Hart-Scott-Rodino and see what it reveals....
(I don't seriously think that Baker Brothers would be named in this because they have serious intentions of BUYING Incyte Genomics for themselves.)
Just so you don't think I'm fibbing:
I stand corrected, it came out on November 30th.
Applications Given Early Antitrust Clearance
9:29a ET November 30, 2011 (Dow Jones) Applications Given Early Antitrust Clearance
The Hart-Scott-Rodino Act requires under certain circumstances that prospective acquirers of voting securities or assets apply for clearance from regulators. Requests for early termination or clearance are granted when the Federal Trade Commission and the antitrust division of the Department of Justice have determined that they won't take action during the waiting period.
The following is a list of companies or people to which the FTC has granted early clearance of antitrust concerns under the HSR Act:
NAME OF ACQUIRING PERSON
NAME OF ACQUIRED PERSON DATE
NAME OF ACQUIRED ENTITY TERMINATED
L'Oreal S.A. Tuesday
Pacific Bioscience Laboratories, Inc.
Pacific Bioscience Laboratories, Inc.
PPL Corporation Tuesday
LS Power Equity Partners II, L.P.
Bluegrass Generation Company, L.L.C.
Michael and Jeannie O'Neill Tuesday
101164459 Saskatchewan Ltd.
Winn Bay Sand Limited Partnership
Carlisle Companies Incorporated Tuesday
Brockway Moran & Partners Fund II, L.P.
TSEI Holdings, Inc.
Gregory W. Penske Tuesday
Roger S. Penske
D. Longo, Inc.
El Monte Automotive Group, Inc.
SJ Motors, Inc.
PTT Global Chemical Public Company Tuesday
ABRY Partners VII, L.P. Tuesday
American Capital, Ltd.
CIBT Solutions, Inc.
Humana Inc. Tuesday
CRH plc Tuesday
M. Allen Hatfield
United Products Corporation of America, Inc.
QUIKRETE Holdings, Inc. Tuesday
Robert J. Schlegel
Veneerstone California, LLC
Santa Fe Lava Rock, LLC
N2M Group, LLC
Western Aggregates, LLC
Pavestone Company, LLC
Pavestone Holdings, LLC
Pavestone California, LLC
Pavestone Company of Mass., LLC
Bedrock Freight Brokerage, LLC
North American Marble, LLC
Pavestone Company of Ohio, LLC
Glass Mountain Pumice 2004, LLC
Douglas F. Manchester Tuesday
Platinum Equity Capital Jewel Partners
Project Jewel Holdings, LLC
Baker Brothers Life Sciences, L.P. Tuesday
Tilman J. Fertitta Tuesday
McCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurants, Inc.
McCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurant, Inc.
Order free Annual Report for ConAgra Foods, Inc.
Visit http://djnewswires.ar.wilink.com/?link=CAG or call 1-888-301-0513
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.BT201111300048072011-11-30 14:29:00.00072BC3UCVPK19LIVR0ED6MNTJTLDJNF
Some ID came by the INCY MB around that time and posted that his or her phone, or pager or sqeeker-box or whatever had broadcasted that news.
It was unverified stuff. So I followed up on it and that person was telling it, pretty much, straight.
It's not such a surprise about acquisiton.
It came out last December that Baker filed papers (most likely on behalf of Incyte) for "early antitrust clearance". Not only that, they were granted the early antitrust clearance which they filed for.
That news came out, BTW, via TDAmeritrade. I checked it and confirmed it myself with TDAmeritrade.
Ameritrade would not elablorate on the news when I inquired with them, but they did confirm that the news came out via their media outlet.
Now, all of that is not simply because Baker Brothers have been buying INCY stock; nor is it that Baker Brothers are buying out Incyte themselves. None of that makes sense in reality.
Realistically, Baker Brothers filed that paperwork on behalf of Incyte and yet-to-be-named suitor. AZN and Lily have been speculated as suitors, unofficially, but Incyte also has arrangements with Pfizer, I believe.
In the end, who knows? It could be just about anyone truthfully.
My own best hopes have been that an aquisition would be announced before the 1st half of 2012; although it may be later than that point, we might still see it before the end of 2012.
There also have been unsubstantiated rumors circulating in some financial world media sources for several weeks now. These would most likely be the handwriting on the wall, so to speak.
The shorts are just getting their minor tribute from INCY.
They had INCY down much farther previously and couldn't fulfill their promise to destroy the stock. That prospect would be even less likely now. They are just taking their opportunity to collect their "fees".
Thanks for the thoughts and the advice.
I could tell you but would have to kill you. LOL seriously, I have been asking around. I am in the medical profession but in a totally separate field. From what I understand there are no good options for these patients and even better, Jakafi does not involve an iv therapy ( takes a long time to administer and incionvien for pt), Jakafi is a simple pill they take. Anyway, this is all just an educated gamble for me but you only live once. I am all in on this and admit I may be just a tad bit biased. I suggest everyone make their own decision after looking at the insider transactions, the fact that they are the first to market with the drug, the huge market and resulting value and the fertile acquisition environment for a company that is actually generating revenue with pretty positive pipeline. In addition, I believe their will be positive news next week and the shorts will be running out of this like rats off a sinking ship (can you say mega short squeeze). JMHO