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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • ejparchitect1 ejparchitect1 Mar 19, 2012 8:21 AM Flag


    bring it today----market will run .......glta

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    • Rachel McMinn came out this morning saying she expects the next month or two to bring good news. I'll try to cut and paste it, but my computer is acting up.

      • 2 Replies to umcc2012
      • Heading into eventful May
        We are optimistic INCY shares will trade higher on upcoming events in May/June,
        which should provide greater confidence in INCY’s core oncology and inflamm.
        programs: (1) first full quarterly sales for the company’s recently launched
        oncology drug Jakafi (early May), which should handily beat consensus; (2) FDA
        feedback on PFE’s tofacitinib for rheumatoid arthritis (May 9), which will provide
        regulatory visibility for INCY/LLY’s second in class drug (LY3009104) heading into
        Phase 3 late 2012; (3) detailed LY3009104 Phase 2b results should provide
        greater clarity on its competitive profile (abstracts mid May, EULAR June 6-9).
        Jakafi launch expectations are low, room for upside
        Consensus Jakafi 1Q and 2012 sales are projected to be $8M (range $4-11M)
        and $70M (range $51-$89M). We estimate 300 new patients were started on
        Jakafi in December, a month heavy with holidays and a medical meeting that
        limits prescription writing. We also note that there were zero clinical trial or
        compassionate use patients driving the launch. In order to meet 1Q consensus,
        demand would have to fall to 60-65 patients per month (i.e. -80% from
        December), which seems unrealistic to us. To meet our Street high estimates,
        demand has to fall by 50%; if demand was steady, we estimate 1Q and 2012
        sales would be ~2x consensus.
        INCY’s RA value follows tofacitinib
        INCY and LLY have a second in class oral Jak inhibitor an estimated three years
        behind PFE’s tofacitinib. The May 9 FDA advisory panel for tofacitinib should
        provide greater insight into any potential approval issues for the drug specifically,
        but any potential drug class related concerns should also be discussed. Earlier
        Phase 2 data for LY3009104 suggest that INCY/LLY’s drug should have similar
        efficacy to tofacitinib, and has potential dosing advantages (once/day vs 2x/day)
        and fewer potential drug-drug interactions.

        Additional RA background information
        INCY partnered its second generation Jak1/2 inhibitor (originally called
        INCB028050) with LLY in 2009. The drug candidate was subsequently renamed
        LY3009104. Following results of a small Phase 2 study, LLY designed a larger
        study focused on refining and lowering the dose (Table 1). The 270 patient study
        completed late 2011/early 2012 and data are expected at the EULAR meeting in
        June (6-9). The companies have already announced plans to advance ‘104 into
        Phase 3 studies; we expect more details on the design to follow in the coming
        months, and enrollment to initiate towards YE.
        Brief conclusions
        􀂄 ‘104 is slated to start Phase 3 towards year end, which suggests it could
        come to market in 2015
        􀂄 Efficacy appears similar for both drugs, but Phase 2b data at EULAR should
        help support this assumption
        􀂄 ‘104 appears to be effective once/daily, an advantage over tofacitinib
        (2x/day); again Phase 2b data should support initial Phase 2a results
        􀂄 ‘104 may have fewer drug-drug interactions than tofacitinib
        􀂄 Whether safety/tolerability differences exist between ‘104 and tofacitinib will
        need to be clarified with longer term data for ‘104
        􀂄 We expect the upcoming FDA panel to recommend tofacitinib approval
        based on the strong efficacy

      • Thanks. That would be great if you could post.

        Let's go $19.........

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