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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • bonkenx bonkenx Oct 23, 2012 10:02 AM Flag

    jacosa; what do you think is happening

    Any idea appreciated...strange stock action before bothersome.

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    • I have a positive anti-talent for trading, which has a lot to do with pushing me toward longer time horizons. But rememver that Incyte is a completely institutional stock. I think the signal is pretty clear that institutions are reducing their exposure to less-than-giant suppliers to health care. This makes sense politically (these companies benefit from increased coverage, which is endangered) and economically (semi-elective procedures, like stenting for stable angina, seem to be constrained by affordability). So Incyte is part of an out-of-favor basket. There is probably also fear that another bad CC is in the offing (Perfectly avoidable errors knocked $hundreds of MM off the company's market cap. last time, and we've seen that Friedman is capable of speaking well--YOU figure out how likely another bad CC is...but a fiduciary has to be aware of low-probability risks)--rather than changing Incyte's share of the small health-care baskets, that probably has led to some independent shorting (That is, some institutional MMs buy the small-cap health care basket set up at higher levels by their companies, then short parts of the basket that they consider risky--sometimes INCY). There may be some belief in the most negative part of the lowball case from the last CC, too.

      [Gratuitous paragraph break] Some people may have had INCY in baskets of takeover candidates (silly). The new hire pretty clearly shows that management intends to remain independent, and may thus have triggered some selling there. And of course, the bad CC set a negative trend for INCY and a lot of traders follow trends. I take both the secrecy about the deep pipeline and the lousy CC as evidence that some sort of major negotiations are going on. I sure don't know what they might be or how they're going, but some big money players may be getting leaks. What are we, 2 years from needing to deal with the converts? There have already been analyst questions about plans for that.

      Ultimately, stock prices can remain very implausible for a long time. I'll pick a year for Incyte to be sold--2017. That's when the famous transformation from voting machine to weighing machine gets enforced. So pick a sale price and fire up your financial calculator.

    • go back and look at how incyte traded the day before earnings last time

81.04+0.94(+1.17%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT