Incyte can't afford a repeat performance of its dismal, stock-crushing second-quarter report when 1) Jakafai sales of $29.7 million fell short of expectations; and 2) management's guidance for 2012 Jakafi sales in the range of $120-135 million disappointed. Adding to Incyte's woes: The unexpected departure of its chief commercial officer.
I don't have a fix on Jakafi consensus for the third quarter to be released Thursday, but Oppenheimer is at $33 million, Wells Fargo at $45 million, J.P. Morgan at $32.6 million. [Incyte adopted a new accounting method to recognize Jafaki sales starting in the third quarter that adds approximately $9 million in deferred revenue. It's not clear if analysts have factored this into their estimates.]
On Thursday's conference call, Incyte management will be asked (again) about patient dropout, duration of Jakafi therapy and the trajectory of new patient additions. Jakafi was also launched in Europe during the quarter, so expect an update on the drug's launch there.
Overall, Incyte is expected to report a net loss of 21 cents per share on total revenue of $60.6 million.