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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • maddison3 maddison3 Nov 15, 2012 4:02 PM Flag

    Did we hit bottom

    Any technical analysis would be helpful..... Thanks in advance

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and don't expect more from technical analysis than it can give. And with high frequency trading, the time scale that TA is good for has shrunk, possibly to under 5 minutes.

      Some market seasonalities stand up pretty well. We can modify those by awareness--for a very germane instance, tax selling is likely to be severe this year because big players anticipate taking a lot of profits at year-end to beat the threatened increase in capital gains taxes, and even at the lower rate they want to cut their exposure. Tax selling season has lately ended in early December. So chronologically, I think we're close to the bottom. As I've pointed out often, the present INCY price is far below anything justified by fundamentals (Yeah, the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent, but as I said above, I think we have a time scale to look at here). We're coming into two favorable seasonalities for INCY: the "January Effect" (it sorta starts in mid-December lately) favoring small companies and The Jan-Mar strong season for health care (PARTLY explained by people emptying their health care expense plans by year-end and thus generating good calender q4 results--but it was apparent before such plans became widespread).

      Yeah, the "Austerity bomb" (hey, I'm a Rockefeller/Javits/Case Republican--that is, practically a socialist--I prefer that term to "Fiscal cliff") is a threat. I'm predicting with moderate confidence that the "no tax increases of any size or kind ever for any reason" bright line is going to fall. Without that, there is a decent chance that our governcritters can make some compromises that actually lead to economic improvement.

    • Not that I know anything or have any knowledge of the markets...but, I do believe we are witnesing a revaluation of our company along with all other equities. I reallly don't think tech analysis is going to help with a failing economy and a government that can't seem to function when it comes to getting started facing the obvious. Great companies, and I do mean great companies like Boeing and GE, and ABX are getting crushed as investors try to get a handle on when to reenter the market. BA has a target of $85 to $90 by most analysts and it can not perform. I think you can thorw all the targets out the window for the time being because it takes retail investors to move the pps and not just big hedge funds popping pennies up and down to sucker in the little guys. THe m arket is basically unregulated when it comes to stealing deposits in a 401k account using high frequency computers to take the deposits from large companies employees once a month. This is not to say spec plays won't make a few investors some money, but when the big DOW components can't get traction, it is time to back off and that is what we are seeing.

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