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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • tjnelis tjnelis Jan 24, 2013 3:34 PM Flag

    a look at yr end results, not a maddi quess

    Per the 3q results of 2012, 9 month loss is .49, as for the recent ms article on the downgrade, analysts are looking for a yr loss of .49 per share, hmmmmmm can it get any easier to beat.
    we know that they got a 50M milestone payment from lilly
    sales will be small increase to no change sooo 45M
    and for good measure I will give them a 10M royality from NVS on sales that r taking place alreay, in places like Asia, uk, Canada.......
    so I am looking at 105m in booked revenue
    now the last 3 Q's the burn rate has been 80m ...since management wants to double staff
    I will increase it to 87m for the q

    18 m income for the q and divided by 128m shares is .14 for the q and (-.35) for the year
    with no additional write offs by management

    but will be enough to end the bear raid in the stock is the question of the day

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    • just thought for the pumpers i would post the following, as i previously STATED the estimates should not be hard to beat.......the mean is for a -(02) the high, even higher than my .14 is .18 and the low is -.25, so based on these estimates i would say that very few analysts are paying any attention to what is going on with incyte, hence most days low volume and dripping lower............again i will state it, is it enough the bear raid in the stock??????

    • I will readdress my slip in my estimates, that being the 10m royalty payment, so to clear things up just so slightly 3m plus from NVS on the royalty and a miscellaneous 7 m in other payments.....still do not believe that jakafi is above 45m for the q

    • Well, since we're getting info that Novartis sold about 23M, then INCY will get maybe 3M of royalty. Which means 98M in revenue based on your revised numbers. So that means a beat by 3M...which I'm not sure if it would mean a huge upside.

    • Since no one else has replied and I did not want your best post ever to go unanswered... I posted my thoughts about a month ago... Revenue $115 million.... $50 Lilly, $15 royalty, $50 Jakafi... This is a very optimistic view. Realistic view $110 million..... $50 Lilly, $15 royalty, $45 Jakafi.

      I would like to know the thoughts of others... like Pharma and Jacosa..

      thanks in advance

      • 2 Replies to maddison3
      • I agree, we should easily beat the low expectations for this quarter. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 50 million of sales this Q, but I do wear rose colored glasses from time to time.

        The past couple weeks have been exactly what we’ve needed- buying time before knocking peoples sox off on the 14th. Hang in there folks. Good things to come

      • I think I answered before. I don't do quarter-by quarter so much, but I'm closer to tj on expected numbers. Daily dynamics favor the bears, but one day light shines on the 'dark pipeline' and as long as it isn't a total bust the bears are gonna take a memorable hit. (If the exposure consists of sale of a candidate for cash, that could go from memorable to historic, but putting a hurt on shorts isn't management's primary goal) Meanwhile, INCY is probably in a range from $16.50-$21.50 or thereabouts. And even if the dark pipeline is a bust, '050 is a damn near guarantee of a future catalyst.

        When I asked how many people are generating all the traffic, I forgot to ash how many people tj is.

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