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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Mar 13, 2013 12:51 PM Flag

    Barclays Presentation

    The substantive stuff is familiar. Two non-substantive items of interest:

    Jim Daly hinted broadly that one of the near-term items (pancreatic cancer, exploration of '110 usefulness) will be favorable. What with the class action, he'd have to be nuts to do that without knowing something good. As I've said before, success in the pancreatic CA trial would most likely be breathtakingly obvious without breaking the blinding (once wasting starts, it doesn't normally stop...if even a few subjects maintain weight for a while, you KNOW there's an effect). So my vote is that that is what's coming up. Presuming that the effect is mostly palliative, this becomes an easy sell--something like $50K total for improved QoL in the little time left to the patient.

    The poll after the presentation had half the analysts thinking that Incyte will miss its sales numbers for the year.

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    • Jacosa, since you're pretty much one of the only one's who make sense...gotta love Vaseline...he's gotta be getting whacked...what's your short-mid-long term prognosis here? Do you see continued upward movement with more institutions getting on board?

      • 2 Replies to mrdtino
      • I've said before that I ignore a trading time scale--too many people to compete with (and I'm no good at it). Long term (say 2 years) the prospects are outstanding. Let's guess that bari is introduced in about 20 months--we'll probably be above $40 (say, crossing $30 after the bari p3 reports in arount 14 months) and sweating out the product reception (As you're seeing, it can take a year to get a read on that). And it's possible that there might be some excitement about one of the new candidates. Either by growth or take-out I expect $100 in 6 years (CAGR around 25%).

        That's assuming a modest amount of QoL improvement and no survival benefit from trials of ruxo vs CA. Better than that and we might see something spectacular. In any event, I feel comfortable selling puts.

      • not sure but think we have heard the last of Vaseline and his alter ego TJ.... Love the presentation. I agree Daly does not make those statements without knowledge. He has been a real positive for this company

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