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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • tjnelis tjnelis Jun 5, 2013 4:37 PM Flag

    analysts 2 q estimates

    high .42
    mean avg .08
    low -.08

    high 163m
    mean avg 114.5m
    low 85m

    contact revenue
    13.3 m from nvs
    3.4 m lly

    nvs royality

    jakafi sales 53m

    milestone payment nvs
    25 million

    4 m

    total 113m

    r and d , s.g and a .....interest....blah blah blah 92 m, this includes the 7 million payout with the senior note conversion

    fully diluted shares count 150m, includes conversion shares and new employee stock options

    23 milllion in income or .15 per share......

    one key variable possible nvs milestone payment NOT INCLUDED

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    • now we see that the royality from nvs will more be like 4.5m, revenue estimates WILL miss STREET ESTIMATES, be 110m or less with earnings of .08 same as street..........non event, so share price will then go down

    • some slight changes r&d SG&A, overhead, interest 88million
      though with the conversion, additional interest on the closure of roughly a third of the senior debt 9.8M
      also there will need to be an adjustment for the new stock incentives for the this would be treated as an ex, itemshares out standing155 million for the q
      rev, 113 expenditures 98 income 15 or round up to .10 a share of income

    • The Jakafi sales number looks a little low (partly because of increasing off-label use, partly because of improving sales messaging). I wouldn't be surprised if the blah blah blah number (presumably including bari co-development expense) is also low, so call it a wash. It isn't entirely impossible that there could be a primary data read on the P Ca trial by the CC. When a company that wants to be seen as early stage and research oriented is close to break-even, it's helpful to be able to keep attention on work in progress rather than on the near-zero net. A strictly development company with the finances and pipeline of Incyte but no actual Jakafi business would probably sell in the $8-12 range, so there's substantial value to shareholders of emphasizing the development aspect of the company.

      A systemic drug for psoriasis would be a poor business fit for Incyte, so some sort of sale of rights is a day-to-day possibility. Same general story (but farther from ripe) for IBD unless results were implausibly good.

    • So earning 0.15 / share you would think this stock would be on-fire? R u buying, selling or riding out the storm until it hits $40.

      Sentiment: Hold

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