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Incyte Corporation Message Board

  • beckyherbst_investorfan beckyherbst_investorfan Jun 7, 2013 3:56 PM Flag

    What Is Weird About INCY Stock:

    Is this stock getting any credit for anything other than the current use for Jakafi? It seems the valuation has almost no or very little premium built in for a Phase 3 Rheumatoid Drug, a Phase 3 Polycythemia Vera Indication, many Phase 2 and early trials for Pancreatic, Tumors, etc....

    It just strikes me as odd. I am not sure what to think of that. Just an observation. I don't know if jacosa or others would agree or not.

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    • I've ranted about this before, but it isn't unusual. It's the old (I AM old enough to remember this ad campaign) "Certs is a candy mint...NO! Certs is a breath mint" problem. Incyte is a biggish little drug developer with a lot of valueless gene patents, some late stage candidates and a pretty rich (if not very varied) pipeline of early candidates. NO! Incyte is a financially insecure drug company with only one product. NO! Incyte is a drug company that loses money in its normal course of business. This just isn't the season for looking at a company through more than one filter.

      My favorite way of looking at Incyte is as the Jakafi company (myelofibrosis treatment business only; US only) + the Jakavi licensing business + the drug developer. There are still overlaps (if the separation was perfect, off-label use of Jakafi wouldn't make money for any part of the combination, but would improve the prospects of the drug developer. The overlap that exists pretty much reverses that--Jakafi company makes money and it's potential business unavailable to the developer).

      This division focuses attention on one of the big real issues: the drug developer has a practically unlimited call on the money the other two pieces can raise.

    • would you like a list of items that make it a questionable investment, i am sure it will only make maddi mad but that is investing

      • 1 Reply to tjnelis
      • Oh yes please do, since you have swamped this board with stupidities, please build your rational, financial and scientific case for why you short the stock. But please spare us platitudes, idiocies, and emotional arguments. We will respect you more if you have valid arguments (right or wrong). I would advise you to take you time before you answer this, otherwise you might lose credit for ever (not that you had much of it so far).
        PS: I have nothing against shorts if there are valid scientific and financial reasons, e.g. I shorted SPPI, due to generic pressures on leucovorin that did not support the company valuation and its market share at that time.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Seems to be tailing off bad this afternoon. Looks like more valley ahead on the chart.

      • 1 Reply to bgmarcks
      • Look at a stock like CLDX. They have nothing approved. But they seem to have a bunch of stuff in various Phase trials. That stock has run and put the Market Cap over a Billion. Again, nothing approved. Yet, it continues to make new 52 week highs. So, why would one Company get credit for their promising pipeline? Yet another Company not seem to catch a bid for theirs? I mean, a Phase 3 Rheumatoid candidate isn't worth $5 or more leading up to the completion of a Phase 3? The Phase 2 results looked good enough to me to warrant it. I don't know.

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